Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Glimmer of hope for investment While it is hard to describe any of the recent news on investment in Australia as “good”, the latest figures were not as bad as we had feared. In particular, the plunge in commodity prices does not... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australian labour market stands strong The continued resilience of the labour market in Australia is the main reason why the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has become less inclined to cut interest rates again. Jobs growth remained strong... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Chances of rate cuts diminishing, but not disappearing The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is odds on to leave interest rates on hold at 2.0% at the meeting scheduled for Tuesday 1 st September and the chances of further rate cuts are diminishing. A... 26th August 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Equity price falls don’t materially alter economic outlook While we remain more concerned than most about the Australian economy, we don’t think that the recent sharp falls in equity prices will filter through into much weaker investment or consumption. 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How loose are monetary conditions in New Zealand? Our estimated Taylor Rule shows that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is keeping interest rates lower than current economic conditions would usually warrant in an effort to boost inflation. If... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Judging the health of New Zealand’s economy Our new Capital Economics New Zealand Activity Proxy (CE NZAP) provides a timely guide to changes in economic activity in New Zealand well ahead of the official GDP data and is a useful barometer of... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will services exports fill the mining hole? While in the long-term we expect that services exports will play a big role in filling the hole in the economy left by mining, in the near-term the problem is that a lot of the boost to services... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Our take on the labour market puzzle While our analysis suggests that it is the surprising leap in the unemployment rate in Australia in July that is sending the false signal and not the surprising strength of employment growth, there... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Employment (Jul.) Another sizeable gain in Australian employment in July has continued the remarkably strong run of recent months. However, today's data also showed a sharp rise in labour force participation, which has... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Chances of RBA rate cuts fading, but not disappearing The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at 2.0% for a third consecutive month appears to diminish the chances that rates will eventually fall to 1.5% as we have been... 4th August 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Pondering potential growth Australia’s potential growth rate has probably slowed to around 2.75% from the 3.00% to 3.25% that the Reserve Bank of Australia has assumed for many years. While this may decrease the Bank’s desire... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Lower potential growth wouldn’t rule out rate cuts It looks as though the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will break this year’s pattern of cutting interest rates at meetings that are followed by the release of the Statement on Monetary Policy by... 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Weaker dollars are a welcome windfall The latest weakening of the Australian and New Zealand dollars to new six-year lows of US$0.73 and US$0.65 respectively are a windfall for the Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand who want to... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The unusual exchange rate pass-through The muted rise in import prices over the past year despite the near-15% fall in the Australian dollar suggests that the weaker dollar won’t boost underlying inflation by as much as the Reserve Bank of... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Heading towards 2% The 0.25% reduction in interest rates, to 3.00% from 3.25%, announced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand today is the second in a series of cuts that we think could take interest rates all the way... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q2) The rise in Australia's headline consumer price inflation in the second quarter will not trouble the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), given that it largely reflects a rebound in petrol prices. Instead... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
