Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The further rise in consumer confidence in November, to a six-month high, suggests that households are playing a part in the recent “firming” in activity. 11th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The RBA’s clever little trick By highlighting the recent “firming” in activity at the same time as emphasising that there is scope to cut interest rates further, the Reserve Bank of Australia has managed to support confidence... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & International Trade (Sep.) September's retail sales and international trade figures support the RBA's view that economic conditions have recently "firmed". They suggest that GDP growth may have rebounded from the dismal 0.2% q... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q3) The stark deterioration in labour market conditions in New Zealand in the third quarter pretty much guarantees that the RBNZ will cut rates to 2.5% at the meeting in December, from 2.75% now. What's... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Low inflation will soon prompt RBA to cut again Although the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) once again decided to leave interest rates on hold at 2.0%, the new line in the statement that "the outlook for inflation may afford scope for further... 3rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Worrying fall in underlying inflation The further fall in underlying inflation in Australia in the third quarter could be the start of a period of persistently low inflation that plays a role in prompting the Reserve Bank of Australia to... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How could a La Niña next year affect agriculturals? With the Australian Bureau of Meteorology indicating that the current El Niño could see a marked decline during the first quarter of next year, there is a significant risk that La Niña could develop... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Rugbynomics: New Zealand vs Australia It is surprising how the recent economic narrative for Australia and New Zealand is similar to the relative performance of the Wallabies and the All Blacks on the rugby field. If this continues, then... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ has more work to do Today's decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to leave interest rates at 2.75% is just a pause in a loosening cycle that we believe will end with rates falling to 2.00%. And the news that... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Kneejerk reaction to rising mortgage rates unlikely The tightening in monetary conditions triggered by the recent rises in mortgage rates by the major banks and the strengthening in the dollar is unlikely to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation to play a more pivotal role in the policy debate Our forecast that underlying inflation in Australia will fall below the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target range next year suggests that inflation will soon start to have a bigger influence on policy... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Pausing for breath Although the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will probably leave interest rates on hold at 2.75% at the policy meeting on Thursday 29 th October, this will just be a pause in the loosening cycle... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly LNG: Will the huge investment pay off? Australia is set to overtake Qatar as the world’s largest LNG supplier by 2018. However, recent trends in energy markets pose some headwinds for LNG exporters. In particular, the slump in oil prices... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand CPI (Q3) The CPI data for the third quarter were not weak enough to make a rate cut at the RBNZ's policy meeting in late October a certainty. But with the full effects of the recent slowdown in economic growth... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Employment (Sep.) While the fall in employment in September is unlikely to significantly alter the RBA's view of the economy, we think that a sustained weakening in the labour market will contribute to the RBA cutting... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Better news from China only a reprieve The rebound we expect in China over the next few quarters should come as a relief to Australian policymakers and many investors. But long-run prospects for iron ore demand, which makes up more than... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
