Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Falling further away from fiscal surplus In the upcoming fiscal update, the Australian Treasurer is going to have to admit that the cumulative budget deficit over the next four years is going to be some $30bn bigger than expected in May’s... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Nov.) November’s labour market data are either a major mirage or a minor miracle. We think that the truth lies somewhere in between, with conditions improving but not quite as much as the figures suggest. 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand: 2.5% won’t be the floor After cutting interest rates today from 2.75% back to the record low of 2.50% seen during the Global Financial Crisis, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand sent a strong signal that it doesn’t think rates... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Dec.) Despite the modest fall back in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in December, from 101.7 in November to 100.8, we don’t expect this to be the beginning of a downward trend as the buoyant... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Net exports can’t carry the economy for long The Australian economy has continued to perform reasonably well given the very testing set of circumstances and has comfortably outperformed other commodity producers. But we don’t expect GDP growth... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Oct.) The acceleration in retail sales growth in October is very timely for retailers, who will be rubbing their hands at the idea that households are becoming more willing to open their wallets ahead of... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Better data not enough to prevent cut to 2.5% The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will probably cut interest rates by 0.25%, from 2.75% to 2.50%, at the policy meeting on Thursday 10th December. What’s more, and despite the release of some positive... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response GDP (Q3) The Australian economy isn’t as strong as the surge in GDP in the third quarter suggests, as a large boost to growth from net exports hides the worrying contraction in domestic demand. While GDP... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Current Account & Government Finances (Q3) The latest data on net exports and government spending/investment suggest that GDP growth in the third quarter was a little bit stronger than we thought at around 0.9% q/q. This supports the... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hard to “chill out” when capex is collapsing Even though the recent comment by the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor that everyone should “chill out” was clearly said in jest, it looks a little misplaced when we have since found out that... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Private Capital Expenditure Survey (Q3) The plunge in private capital expenditure in the third quarter suggests that GDP growthwas a little weaker than we had been expecting and, more worryingly, that non-mininginvestment is not filling the... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Rates on hold, but RBA’s job not done yet The flow of positive economic news since the last Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting makes it a sure bet that the RBA will leave rates on hold at 2.0% for the seventh consecutive month when the... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth may soon pick-up If the recent improvement in Australia’s labour market is sustained, then wage growth will soon accelerate from its current 17-year low. An increase in productivity growth at the same time would keep... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Rebound in activity will be short-lived Although GDP growth probably rebounded in the third quarter, New Zealand’s economy isn’t in the clear just yet as the full impact of the collapse in the dairy price is still working its way through... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A significant shift in borrowing trends The Reserve Bank of Australia will have been pleased to see more evidence that the housing market is cooling at the same time that the outlook for business investment is improving. If recent trends... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Oct.) The strength of Australia’s labour market in October builds on other evidence that suggests the economy has made some big leaps forward in recent months. It diminishes the chances of further rate cuts... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
