Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls Our full analysis of the prospects for the Australian and New Zealand economies is contained in our Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook (sent to clients on 27th January), but in this note we... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Spending boost from net migration not departing just yet The record level of net migration appears to explain around half of the rise in real consumption in New Zealand in the past two years. If net migration slows steadily as is widely expected, then this... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lies, damned lies and labour market statistics? At least some of the startling fall in the unemployment rate in New Zealand in the fourth quarter of last year, from 6.0% to 5.3%, appears genuine. As such, we no longer think that the unemployment... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA holds its nerve on global economy The Reserve Bank of Australia’s February Statement on Monetary Policy confirms that the chances of a near-term reduction in interest rates remains slim. Nonetheless, there are a number of factors that... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Dec.) December’s weaker than expected retail sales figures suggest that retailers had a disappointing Christmas period and that consumer spending has lost some momentum. As a result, we’ve revised down our... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Market turmoil not a major economic threat…yet The sharp falls in equity prices since the turn of the year are unlikely to prompt households or businesses to rein in their spending. In fact, when set against some measures of domestic activity, it... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade & Building Approvals (Dec.) December’s international trade and building approvals data cast doubt on the RBA’s view that there are “reasonable prospects for continued growth in the economy”. This is especially the case when... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q4) The astonishing plunge in the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of last year, to a six-year low of 5.3% from 6.0% in the third quarter, decreases the chances that the RBNZ will reduce interest... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Mixed outlook for the major commodity currencies The recovery in commodity prices over the last week or so has eased the selling pressure on the dollars of Australia, New Zealand and Canada since the start of the year. However, we wouldn’t be... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA feeling the heat from China slowdown While the Reserve Bank of Australia acknowledged the threat posed by a weaker global economy when it left interest rates on hold at 2.0% today, we don’t think it went far enough. With the outlook for... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Tradables inflation is only half the story It’s odd that the financial markets placed so much emphasis on the rise in Australia’s tradables inflation rate in the fourth quarter of last year when this was more than offset by a fall in non... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ opens door to more rate cuts The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s hint that the weakening outlook for inflation means that interest rates may have to be reduced this year from the current rate of 2.5% supports our long-held view... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Low underlying inflation to prompt more rate cuts We continue to believe that GDP growth in both Australia and New Zealand won’t accelerate at all this year from last year’s disappointing rates of around 2.3%. A further weakening in the outlook for... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q4) The rise in headline inflation in the fourth quarter of last year, to 1.7% from 1.5%, hides the more important easing in underlying inflation. On one measure, underlying inflation is now below the RBA... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Market turmoil won’t prompt action The recent turmoil in financial markets will have brought a sudden end to Governor Stevens ’“chilled” Christmas period. But this won’t be enough to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut... 25th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will Australia join New Zealand in the near-deflation club? The higher starting point means that inflation in Australia is unlikely to fall close to zero, as it has done in New Zealand. That said, underlying or “core” inflation in Australia may soon follow in... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
