Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Get used to low underlying inflation Our success in forecasting ahead of everyone else that the Reserve Bank of Australia would cut interest rates below 2% is mainly because we realised that the legacy of a prolonged period of below... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update How Lowe will interest rates go? The Reserve Bank of Australia’s new forecast that underlying inflation will remain below the 2-3% target range until mid-2018 supports our view that interest rates will soon be cut by a further 0.25%... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales & International Trade (Mar.) March’s international trade and retail sales data suggest that a boost to GDP growth from net trade probably more than offset an easing in consumption growth in the first quarter. We estimate that... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q1) The sharper-than-expected rise in the unemployment rate in the first quarter reversed half of the large decline at the end of last year and suggests that the previous improvement was more a mirage... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Pre-election Budget postpones fiscal pain While the Budget has been badged as focusing on “jobs and growth”, Treasurer Scott Morrison was clearly thinking about his own job and the probable Federal election on 2nd July when he crafted it... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Rate cut to be followed by further reduction to 1.5% Today’s decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates from 2.0% to 1.75% will help solve the economy’s twin problems of too slow growth and too low underlying inflation. It also... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia Budget Preview: Gambling with the AAA credit rating Treasurer Scott Morrison will put Australia’s AAA credit rating at risk in Tuesday’s Federal Budget by revealing a net rise in spending in an attempt to gain favour ahead of the probable election on... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Dollars go from helping to hindering The recent strength of both the Australian and New Zealand dollars means that interest rates will have to fall further than widely expected to solve the twin problems of too slow economic growth and... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Rates will reach a floor of 1.75% in New Zealand We don’t believe that the slightly more positive tone of the policy statement released after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left interest rates on hold at 2.25% today will prevent the Bank from... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Fall in inflation could prompt cut to 1.75% We suspect that news of the sharp fall in underlying inflation in the first quarter will be enough to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates from 2.00% to 1.75% at its policy... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q1) The sharp fall in underlying inflation to 1.5% in the first quarter is a game-changer for the Reserve Bank of Australia and supports our long-held view that interest rates will fall from 2.0% now to 1... 27th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Pre-election spending splutter mostly a myth The idea that households and businesses postpone their spending ahead of a Federal election is more fallacy than fact. Admittedly, there is some evidence that the uncertainty generated by an election... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Rates may have to fall to 1.75% We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut interest rates by 0.25% to 2.00% at the meeting in early June rather than at the meeting on Thursday 28th April, although we wouldn’t completely rule... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Stronger dollars a major threat to outlook The recent rise of the Australian and New Zealand dollars will prevent GDP growth from strengthening this year and will keep core inflation at uncomfortably low levels. This is particularly true in... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand CPI Inflation (Q1) The rebound in CPI inflation in the first quarter increases the chances that the RBNZ won’t cut interest rates to 2.0% at next week’s policy meeting and will instead wait until the meeting in June. By... 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What next for inflation expectations in New Zealand? Since the sharp declines in inflation expectations were the main reason why the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates to 2.25% in March, future moves in inflation expectations will have a big... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
