Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Jul.) Much like financial markets and businesses, the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in July suggests that households have been largely unaffected by the significant political uncertainty... 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - New Zealand dollar won’t continue to defy gravity The New Zealand dollar may not to be able to defy gravity for much longer as a shrinking interest rate premium could drag it down from US$0.73 now to around US$0.65 by the end of the year. That would... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why the AAA credit rating doesn’t matter While we doubt that the loss of Australia’s AAA credit rating would be followed by a rise in borrowing costs for the government, states and banks, it would nonetheless highlight that the burden to... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Loss of AAA rating wouldn't raise borrowing costs S&P’s decision to revise Australia’s AAA credit rating from stable to negative is another political blow for the Coalition, but it doesn’t mean much for the financial markets, the States or the banks 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA not too worried by political uncertainty By leaving interest rates at 1.75% and not providing a very strong hint that they will be cut in August, the Reserve Bank of Australia today implied that the recent financial market volatility and... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales & International Trade (May) Weaker-than-expected retail sales and international trade figures for May provide further evidence that GDP growth probably slowed sharply in the second quarter. This won’t be enough to persuade the... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What does the election mean for the economy and markets? The fallout on the economy and financial markets from the uncertain outcome of the Federal election will probably be relatively mild and short-lived and is unlikely to prompt the Reserve Bank of... 4th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Households can cope with lower wealth Although the recent poor performance of equity prices means that household wealth may decline in the first half of the year, we doubt this will significantly restrain consumption growth. Households... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus A new era of very low inflation The unusually low rates of underlying inflation in both Australia and New Zealand will remain a thorn in the side of policymakers for a number of years yet. This explains why we believe that the... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Brexit volatility won't prompt July rate cut The recent volatility in global financial markets triggered by the UK’s vote to leave the EU is unlikely to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates from 1.75% to 1.50% at its... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Brexit not a major threat Last week’s vote by the UK to leave the EU isn’t a major threat to the Australian and New Zealand economies, especially when the resulting volatility in the financial markets appears to be fading. 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Underlying inflation to remain low While GDP growth was stronger than expected in Australia and New Zealand in the first quarter, this doesn’t alter our view that underlying inflation will remain low for a while yet. The Australian... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia need not fear a Brexit The sharp falls in equity prices in Australia in response to the rise in the chance that the UK may vote to leave the EU seem overdone. A Brexit is unlikely to be a disaster for the global economy... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (May) May’s data suggest that the labour market is not too strong to prevent the Reserve Bank of Australia from cutting interest rates to 1.5% at its August meeting and not too weak to prompt it to become... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q1) The rise in GDP in the first quarter doesn’t make the RBNZ any less likely to cut interest rates to 2.0% at the next policy meeting in August. And we believe that a combination of weaker GDP growth... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The rebound in consumer confidence following the RBA’s decision to cut interest rates in May was sustained in June. But since rate cuts tend to boost sentiment for only a couple of months, confidence... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
