RBNZ Watch New Zealand - RBNZ to signal rates may fall below 2.0% When the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Thursday 11 th August, we expect it to cut interest rates from 2.25% to 2.00% and to confirm that it is willing to reduce rates further. A stubbornly high... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Employment (Q2) The slimmed-down labour market release suggests that employment growth weakened a little in the second quarter. The RBNZ will be more worried, however, to see that there is still no sign of... 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Rates in Australia may yet have to fall to 1.0% If it is going to weaken the Australian dollar to help solve its low inflation problem, the Reserve Bank of Australia may have to follow today’s 0.25% interest rate cut to a new record low of 1.5%... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade & Building Approvals (Jun.) The weak outlook for inflation is enough on its own to prompt the RBA to cut interest rates to 1.5% at the policy meeting later today, but mounting evidence that economic growth lost a lot of momentum... 2nd August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Rates to reach new record lows We believe that a new era of stubbornly low underlying inflation will prompt policymakers to cut interest rates in Australia from 1.75% now to 1.00% next year and to reduce rates in New Zealand from 2... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The bigger picture on inflation Australia’s inflation data for the second quarter provided something for everyone, but the bigger picture is that there is very little price pressure anywhere in the economy. This is why we believe... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Mixed inflation figures won’t prevent cut to 1.50% While the second-quarter inflation figures were somewhat mixed, we still expect that the most likely outcome at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy meeting on Tuesday 2nd August is an interest rate... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q2) The CPI inflation data for the second quarter makes next Tuesday’s RBA policy meeting a closer call than had looked likely, but we still think the RBA will pull the trigger and cut interest rates to 1... 27th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Two things the RBA could learn from the RBNZ The recent experience of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand provides two lessons for the Reserve Bank of Australia. First, don’t dither when it comes to making decisions otherwise you’ll be punished by a... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Shrugging off global and domestic uncertainty The early evidence suggests that businesses and households in Australia have not been ruffled by the UK’s vote to leave the EU and Australia’s close Federal election result. Admittedly, consumer... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ hits out at high dollar The Reserve Bank of New Zealand used its unusual inter-meeting “economic update” to all-but guarantee that it will cut rates from 2.25% to 2.00% at the meeting on 11 August and that it wants the... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - New LVR rules raise the chance of rates going below 2.0% Today’s announcement by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand that it intends to tighten existing loan-to-value restrictions will not only go some way to addressing the risks to financial stability posed by... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q2) The weak tone of the CPI inflation data for the second quarter probably means that at Thursday’s unusual inter-meeting economic update the RBNZ will hint that it intends to use tighter lending... 18th July 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Will the plunge in UK gilt yields last? In the wake of the UK’s vote for Brexit on 23rd June, long-term government bond yields have fallen further there than in other developed countries. (See Chart below.) Indeed, the 10-year Gilt yield... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The part-time problem Most of the rise in the share of people working part-time is due to long-term factors that have improved the flexibility of Australia’s labour market. However, some of it is due to weak economic... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jun.) Although the labour market is probably a bit weaker than June’s figures suggest, we’re not too concerned when the forward-looking indicators remain healthy. That said, the high share of part-time... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
