Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA thinks it’s done enough The policy statement released alongside the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave interest rates at 1.5% today provides no hint that another rate cut is around the corner. If the inflation... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing auction rates provide only part of the picture Auction clearance rates are a timely and useful barometer of housing activity, but since they capture less than a third of all sales they don’t provide a full picture. While Australia’s housing market... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Jul.) July’s weaker-than-expected retail sales figures mean that even if spending were to gather momentum in the remainder of the third quarter, real consumption growth will struggle to match the probable 0... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capital Expenditure Survey (Q2) The private capital expenditure survey for the second quarter shows that the investment transition is taking place slowly. Together with the stagnation in retail sales in July, we believe that GDP... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch RBA not in a rush, but rates may fall to 1.0% next year Glenn Stevens is unlikely to end his decade as Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia with a bang, as interest rates will almost certainly be left at 1.5% at his last policy meeting on Tuesday 6th... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Household sector unlikely to offset weakness elsewhere Last week’s news that consumer confidence in Australia surged to a three year high provided an encouraging signal about the health of the household sector. However, while we expect consumption growth... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Currencies remain a concern While the recent fall in the cash rate to record lows in Australia and New Zealand should help to support household spending, the effect on other areas of the economy may be more limited. For one, we... 24th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why wage growth will stay low While the latest data showed that employment growth has surged in Australia and New Zealand and the unemployment rate has edged down in both economies recently, this won’t be enough to generate... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jul.) July’s labour market figures were much better than expected and forward looking indicators suggest the labour market should continue to remain healthy. However, given that part-time positions... 18th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q2) The delayed release of the second quarter labour market figures showed a surprise surge in employment growth. The unemployment rate also fell slightly, but we expect it to edge down only slowly this... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What would unconventional policy look like? We don’t currently believe that the RBA or RBNZ will have to resort to unconventional monetary policy to boost inflation, but one lesson of the past decade is that we should be prepared for the... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Heading to a low of at least 1.5% in New Zealand Not only did the Reserve Bank of New Zealand today cut interest rates by 0.25% to a new record low of 2.00%, but it also suggested that rates will soon be cut again to 1.75%. In order to weaken the... 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Aug.) While the modest rise in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in August suggests that the effect of interest rate cuts on confidence may be weakening, the rise was still enough to suggest that... 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian dollar punishing the RBA The Reserve Bank of Australia hasn’t done itself any favours by providing no real hints that interest rates will fall below 1.5%, as the resulting strengthening in the dollar will make it even harder... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may yet be forced to cut rates below 1.5% The Reserve Bank of Australia used its new Statement on Monetary Policy to suggest that it hasn’t got much appetite for cutting interest rates below 1.5%, although its own inflation forecasts suggest... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Jun.) The weaker-than-expected rise in real retail sales in the second quarter points to a slowdown in consumption growth and adds to the mounting evidence that GDP growth weakened significantly, perhaps to... 4th August 2016 · 1 min read
