Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Chances of further cuts fading, but not disappearing The decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave interest rates at 1.5% today may fuel some speculation that the next move in rates will be up, although not for a long time. That possibility... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How fast will inflation rise? Both headline and underlying inflation in Australia will probably rise over the next year and, by boosting economic growth and reducing spare capacity, the recent leap in commodity prices raises the... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Rate cutting cycle may not be finished yet While the third quarter inflation data suggest that there is an outside chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates from 1.50% to 1.25% at its policy meeting on Tuesday 1 st... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q3) Ignore the larger-than-expected rise in headline CPI inflation in the third quarter, what really matters is that underlying inflation was weaker than the RBA expected. It probably wasn’t weak enough... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Commodity prices turning into a tailwind The recent rise in the prices of some key commodity exports will go some way to boosting the national income of both Australia and New Zealand. The surge in the price of coal to a three-and-a-half... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The mixed and messy labour market While the Reserve Bank of Australia would do well to ignore the recent falls in employment, it will be getting more concerned that the rising share of employees working part-time will keep wage growth... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Sep.) The RBA may not be too worried by the further decline in employment in September since the data are subject to a couple of distortions and since the unemployment rate fell to 5.6% from 5.7%. But the... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q3) The fall in CPI inflation to 0.2% in the third quarter from 0.4% in the second quarter is in line with the RBNZ’s forecast and means the Bank will follow through on its suggestion that interest rates... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What next for bond yields? While the recent leap in bond yields in Australia has been larger than the rise in the US, we still believe that over the next couple of years bonds in Australia will outperform those in the US... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Confidence (Oct.) The further rise in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in October suggests that the rebound in retail sales in August will be sustained in the coming months. That said, the survey does... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The RBA, inflation and November The inflation figures for the third quarter would need to be much weaker than the Reserve Bank of Australia expects in order to prompt a cut in interest rates to 1.25% at November’s policy meeting... 11th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Decent GDP growth in Q3, but headwinds persist The recent run of better-than-expected economic news means that GDP growth in Australia probably held up fairly well in the third quarter. However, given that there are still notable headwinds, it... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Aug.) The sharp narrowing in the trade deficit in August rounds off a good week of data for the Australian economy and suggests that GDP growth in the third quarter may have been stronger than the 0.5% q/q... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) The better-than-expected rise in retail sales in August will go some way to allaying growing concerns, such as those highlighted by the RBA yesterday, that the easing in consumption growth in the... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Governor, same story By leaving interest rates at 1.5% and the policy statement mostly unchanged at his first meeting as Governor, Philip Lowe showed he is cut from much the same cloth as his predecessor. But while Lowe... 4th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What would Trump mean for Australia & New Zealand? The economic outlook for Australia and New Zealand wouldn’t significantly worsen if Donald Trump became US President. Neither economy is particularly exposed to the threat of higher trade barriers... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
