Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack New Zealand trumps Australia The recent earthquake in New Zealand may put a small dent in activity in the near-term, but it won’t prevent the economy from growing by around 3.5% next year. In fact, the extra boost to activity... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth will remain a worry for the RBA Financial markets look to have jumped the gun by concluding that the chance of a further interest rate cut in Australia has all but vanished. We think that the weak outlook for wage growth may yet... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Oct.) While employment increased in October for the first time since July, revisions to September’s figures meant that the annual rate of employment growth fell to a two-year low of 0.9% y/y, which will do... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor What’s behind the surge in Treasury yields? The rout in the US bond market since the elections there is a logical response to the prospect of a substantial fiscal expansion. Indeed, the results have prompted us to revise up our already-bearish... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Commodity prices shift from headwind to tailwind The recent leap in the prices of the main commodity exports of Australia and New Zealand will boost domestic demand in both economies, but it is unlikely to lead to much faster wage growth and much... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will the RBNZ intervene to weaken the NZ dollar? While Trump’s election win is still causing some uncertainty in financial markets, attention in New Zealand has swiftly moved to the kiwi dollar following comments by Governor Wheeler that the RBNZ... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ thinks it has done enough The Reserve Bank of New Zealand showed that business carries on as usual with Trump as US President as today it met its previous pledge to cut interest rates from 2.00% to 1.75%. What’s more... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Market fallout from President Trump may not last long The now-probable election of Donald Trump as US President will continue to send shockwaves through the financial markets for a while yet. But we suspect it won’t be long before the bulk of these moves... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Confidence (Nov.) Despite the modest fall in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in November, confidence levels suggest that any slowdown in consumption growth won’t be too severe. More worryingly, the rise in... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Surge in part-time employment in Australia may soon slow While the structural shift towards part-time employment has further to run, an easing in economic growth in industries with a higher than average share of part-time employees suggests that the speed... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Markets need not worry about Trump too much Should Donald Trump pull off a surprise victory in Tuesday’s US Presidential election, equities, bond yields, commodity prices and the Australian and New Zealand dollars would probably all fall. But... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The RBA’s tone is becoming more upbeat While the forecasts published in the RBA’s latest Statement on Monetary Policy have hardly changed since the August edition, the tone is much more balanced and could probably even be described as... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Sep.) The outright fall in real retail sales in the third quarter is consistent with a further slowdown in real consumption growth. That said, the better-than-expected rise in nominal sales in September... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - 1.75% may not be the floor We expect that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will follow through on its commitment for further policy easing by cutting interest rates from 2.00% to 1.75% at its policy meeting on Thursday 10 th... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Sep.) The recent leap in coal prices explains a lot of the sharp narrowing in the trade deficit to a 20-month low in September. If coal prices stay at current levels the deficit could even be wiped out... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q3) While employment growth was stronger than expected in the third quarter, wage growth remained worryingly weak. This will do little to allay the RBNZ’s concerns about the inflation outlook and as a... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
