Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Balancing the budget will be more painful The ratings agencies have shown that they are full of Christmas cheer by maintaining Australia’s AAA credit rating even though the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook revealed that the budget deficit... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly AAA – Going, going, gone? Even if the ratings agencies were to take away Australia’s AAA credit rating immediately after the publication of the Mid-year Economic and Fiscal Outlook on Monday, which we suspect will reveal that... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Nov.) The improvement in jobs growth in recent months provides further evidence that the fall in GDP in the third quarter was a blip rather than anything more worrying. But while the lower underemployment... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus The persistent part-time problem The recent rise in the share of people working part-time but who would like to work longer will continue to restrain wage growth for another couple of years yet. This part-time problem means that a... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Confidence (Dec.) The fall in consumer confidence to an eight-month low in December shows that households have been spooked by the decline in GDP in the third quarter. While confidence is still consistent with a decent... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Business Confidence (Oct.) House Prices (Q3) The rebound in business confidence in November supports our view that Australia is unlikely to fall into its first recession in 25 years in the fourth quarter. But the ABS house price data for the... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What we know about fourth-quarter GDP The fall in GDP in the third quarter means that the data for the fourth quarter will determine whether or not Australia succumbs to its first recession in 25 years. We think it will escape, but only... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Oct.) The unexpected widening in the trade deficit in October is worrying as it implies net exports may be a big drag on GDP growth in the fourth quarter. After yesterday’s news that GDP contracted in the... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Four reasons why a recession remains unlikely The 0.5% q/q fall in GDP in the third quarter has raised the possibility that the first recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of falling output, in 25 years has begun. But while the GDP data... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q3) The 0.5% q/q fall in GDP in the third quarter is unlikely to mark the start of a recession as GDP will probably rebound in the fourth quarter. Even so, it highlights that the economy is not strong... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA looks through possible fall in Q3 GDP After leaving interest rates on hold at 1.5% today, the Reserve Bank of Australia remained fairly optimistic on the outlook for activity even though the economy may have contracted in the third... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Brace yourself for GDP If the Australian economy did indeed stagnate or contract in the third quarter, it needs to be seen in the context of the unusual strength in the previous two quarters. This means there’s probably no... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) The stronger-than-expected rise in retail sales in October will be a welcome sight for retailers in the lead up to the all-important Christmas spending period and suggests that the probable slowdown... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capital Expenditure Survey (Q3) The weak third-quarter private capital expenditure survey adds to other evidence that suggests the economy may not have grown at all in the third quarter. It also confirms that the transition towards... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Talk of rate hikes is premature The Reserve Bank of Australia is unlikely to play either Santa or Scrooge at its meeting on Tuesday 6th December, as it will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.5%. And we believe that... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is a major slowdown happening right under our noses? It’s now possible that the Australian economy didn’t grow at all in the third quarter. It may even have contracted. That would be hard to ignore, especially when jobs growth has slumped to a two-year... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
