RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Rate rises a long way off The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will undoubtedly keep rates on hold at 1.75% at its meeting on Thursday 9 th February, but in the accompanying Monetary Policy Statement we suspect it will revise up... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q4) While employment growth remained decent in the fourth quarter, a sharp increase in the labour force meant that the unemployment rate jumped back above 5.0%. This won’t worry the RBNZ too much, but the... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Progress stalls Australia will make almost no progress this year with GDP growth once again coming in closer to 2.0% than 3.0%. With growth in New Zealand set to accelerate from around 3.0% to 3.5%, the divergence in... 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Leading indicators getting a bit too giddy While the fourth-quarter inflation figures received most of the attention in the last week, growth in the Westpac leading index reached a three-year high and it is consistent with a sharp rebound in... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4) The sharp rise in both headline and core CPI inflation in the fourth quarter is enough to prevent the RBNZ from cutting interest rates further, but it’s not enough to prompt it to raise interest rates... 25th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Headline reflation, underlying stagnation Signs that inflation in both Australia and New Zealand has passed its low point may give the Australian and New Zealand dollars a bit of a boost when the data for the fourth quarter are released this... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack External sector won’t fuel a rapid rebound The Australian economy has started to reap some benefits from the rise in key commodity prices towards the end of last year. Most obviously, the trade balance has swung into surplus for the first... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Dec.) While the labour market improved in December from the weakness of the third quarter, it remained worryingly fragile. This is one reason to expect 2017 to be another disappointing year for the overall... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The Westpac measure of consumer confidence remained essentially unchanged in January, which was a disappointing result given that local equity prices have recently risen rapidly. That said, confidence... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How much will housing help? After contributing 0.5 percentage points to the annual rate of GDP growth in Australia in each of the past two years, it looks as though dwellings investment will add almost nothing to growth this... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Nov.) While the slower-than-expected growth in retail sales in November does suggest that the household sector may have lost a bit of momentum late in the fourth quarter, the strong start to the quarter... 10th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Nov.) The first trade surplus since March 2014 isn’t quite as good as it looks as it’s due to a surge in the prices of exports rather than the volume of exports. This means that net exports were probably... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Dollar decline is not as good as it looks The recent weakening in the Australian dollar to a seven-month low against the US dollar won’t boost activity and inflation by as much as you may think as it has not been matched by a weakening in the... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hopes and risks for 2017 The range of possible economic outcomes for next year are wider than usual and it is possible that 2017 proves to be a sweet spot for both Australia and New Zealand. But it seems more likely that a... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q3) The further strengthening in economic growth in the third quarter increases the chances that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand won’t need to cut interest rates further. But it is probably too soon to... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Rising risk of recession The 0.5% q/q fall in GDP in the third quarter and the weak tone of October’s international trade data have raised the chances that Australia will experience its first recession in 25 years. We wouldn... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
