RBA Watch Lowe may have to soften his stance later this year Recent comments by Governor Lowe have made it pretty clear that the Reserve Bank of Australia doesn’t intend to cut interest rates further, including at its next policy meeting on Tuesday 7 th March... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q4) The decent rebound in real GDP in the fourth quarter doesn’t just dash any lingering fears that Australia was in a recession, but it also boosts hopes that the surge in commodity prices will trigger a... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Catch-up wage growth is a pipe dream The idea that Australian employees could enjoy a period of “catch-up” wage growth is a pipe dream. It doesn’t stack up in theory and it doesn’t stack up in practice. It’s far more likely that cyclical... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capital Expenditure Survey (Q4) While there is some tentative evidence that non-mining business investment is rising, it certainly isn’t rising as fast as widely hoped. This doesn’t surprise us as we’ve been saying for a long time... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Overshoot in business confidence The notable improvement in a number of leading activity indicators in the past month or so is consistent with a sizeable pick-up in GDP growth in Australia. But we remain cautious about the prospects... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly State infrastructure spending offsetting Federal inaction You’d be forgiven for thinking that given the Federal government’s desire for fiscal restraint, Australia is unlikely to follow Trump’s lead on public infrastructure. But State governments are... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Is the RBA’s optimism signal or spin? There is definitely a role for the Reserve Bank of Australia to manage expectations by signalling where it thinks the economy is heading. But by sounding more optimistic than its own forecasts, there... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jan.) January’s labour market figures highlight that jobs growth has sustained its recent momentum, but the now-familiar problem of the new jobs being mostly part-time ones rather than full-time ones also... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The rebound in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in February and the surge in the NAB measure of business confidence in January suggests that any lingering concerns over the outright fall in... 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA more concerned about investor lending In February’s Statement on Monetary Policy the Reserve Bank of Australia drew particular attention to the recent pick up in mortgage lending to investors. Given its concerns, if investor lending... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA plots near-perfect projections The new forecasts published in February’s Statement of Monetary Policy show that the RBA is largely expecting Australia’s slow growth and low underlying inflation problems to be solved over the next... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ not planning to raise rates until late 2019 While leaving interest rates on hold at 1.75% today, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand suggested that the next move in interest rates is more likely to be up than down. But since we largely agree with... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Recession or rapid recovery? We wouldn’t rule it out completely, but it is looking less likely that Australia fell into its first recession since 1991 at the end of last year. However, a sustained period of stronger growth is not... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Gambling on growth We believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia is being too complacent in expecting GDP growth to be close to 3% over the next couple of years and underlying inflation to rise to 2.0%. So while the RBA... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Dec.) The rise in real retail sales in the fourth quarter suggests that real consumption growth rebounded, but the outright fall in nominal sales in December reveals a worrying lack of momentum heading into... 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The anatomy of the record trade surplus The roots of the swing in Australia’s international trade balance from a record deficit at the end of 2015 to a record surplus in December 2016 lie firmly in the huge rise in commodity prices rather... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read