Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly An infrastructure Budget would be good for the economy We’re not too keen on the plans of the Australian Treasurer to distinguish “good” debt from “bad” debt in the Federal Budget on Tuesday, but we do like the sound of a budget that is expected to... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Lowe’s confidence in the economy grows The upbeat tone of the Statement on Monetary Policy confirms that the Reserve Bank of Australia has become less worried about low inflation and that further interest rates cuts have become much less... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Mar.) The international trade surplus is well past its peak and will probably continue to fall in the coming months. What’s more, the nominal surplus in the first quarter won’t prevent net exports from... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - RBNZ’s rate projections may reflect upturn in inflation While the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will almost certainly keep the official cash rate on hold at 1.75% at its policy meeting on Thursday 11 th May, in light of the stronger-than-anticipated first... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q1) While employment growth strengthened in the first quarter and the unemployment rate dropped back below 5.0%, wage growth remained stubbornly low. We believe that wage growth will remained fairly muted... 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA’s low inflation fears fade The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates on hold at 1.5% for the eighth meeting in a row today and we doubt it will be in a position to raise rates until at least 2019. There is still a risk... 2nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Real wages squeezed by rising price of essentials The rise in inflation in Australia in the first quarter was good news as it suggests the period of very low inflation is now over. But it is also bad news as it means prices are now rising faster than... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Why we are no longer expecting more rate cuts The Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.5% at the meeting on Tuesday 2nd May and, in a change to our central forecast, we now no longer expect it to cut... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q1) Underlying inflation in Australia is by no means strong but, when coupled with the RBA’s financial stability concerns, it doesn’t appear to be weak enough to prompt the RBA to cut interest rates... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Feb.) Our New Zealand Activity Proxy (NZAP) indicates that the slowdown in GDP growth at the end of last year was temporary. In fact, February’s NZAP is consistent with a pick-up in GDP growth, from 0.4% q... 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Turning (a bit) hawkish on New Zealand The period of ultra-low inflation in New Zealand is well and truly over. While we still believe that the financial markets are too hawkish in expecting the official cash rate to start rising this year... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1) The further strengthening in underlying price pressures in the first quarter has increased the chances that the RBNZ will raise interest rates earlier than we had been expecting. Both we and the RBNZ... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Australia won’t benefit much from global recovery The latest data suggest that we are right to be more downbeat than most on the outlook for Australia this year but more upbeat than most on the prospects for New Zealand. While both economies will... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The Westpac measure of consumer confidence nudged down only slightly in April, which is a welcome sight following the recent string of disappointingly weak data on household spending. That said... 12th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Has the weakening in retail spending got further to run? The outright fall in retail sales values in February raises fresh concerns about the health of the retail sector. Admittedly, some of the recent weakness is due to temporary factors. But there are... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update A subtle shift in the RBA’s rhetoric The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was always going to leave interest rates at 1.5% today, but there are some subtle signs that the Bank is becoming more concerned about the outlook for the labour... 4th April 2017 · 1 min read
