Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Households getting a smaller share of the pie The share of the national income going to Australian households is at an eight-year low and is within a whisker of a 50-year low. What’s more, households in Australia currently get a smaller share of... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Apr.) The plunge in the international trade surplus to a six-month low of $0.6bn in April won’t last long as it was almost entirely due to the fall in coal exports caused by Cyclone Debbie, most of which... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q1) The small 0.3% q/q rise in GDP in the first quarter won’t worry the RBA too much as some of it was due to the temporary influence of the severe weather. Nonetheless, we believe that GDP growth will be... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA willing to ignore the weak economy Even though the economy may have contracted in the first quarter, the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates at 1.5% today and retained its optimistic view on the economic outlook. We suspect... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Further slowdown in consumption growth ahead There is growing evidence that the household sector has begun to falter and, given the worryingly weak outlook for income growth, the situation is unlikely to turnaround any time soon. Indeed, we... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Don’t panic about housing…at least not yet Most of the recent gloomy headlines on Australia’s housing market are simply because people are mistaking the normal soft patch after the Easter school holidays for something more worrying. When you... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Rate hikes remain off the agenda While there is growing evidence that consumption growth has begun to falter, this won’t be enough to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates from 1.5% when it meets on Tuesday... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A year of two halves The latest evidence suggests that the Australian economy entered a soft patch in the first half of the year, with the quarterly rate of GDP growth perhaps averaging only 0.3%. As some of this weakness... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The shifting shape of economic growth The economy appears to be in a new phase where mining investment is no longer as big a drag on growth but net exports, consumption and dwellings investment are providing less support. The risk is that... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Household sector is starting to falter There is growing evidence that the household sector in Australia is beginning to struggle as subdued income growth weighs on spending. The sharp slowdown in the growth of retail sales volumes in the... 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Mar.) The further pick-up in our New Zealand Activity Proxy in March means it is now consistent with the 0.4% q/q increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter being followed by a much more respectable rise of... 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Apr.) The labour market is not weak enough to prompt the RBA to cut interest rates again, but nor is it strong enough to trigger a large enough rise in wages and spending that would prompt the RBA to raise... 18th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Wages (Q1) & Consumer Confidence (May) Record low wage growth suggests that underlying inflation will stay below the RBA’s target range for another year or two yet and it goes some way to explaining why households aren’t particularly happy... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Infrastructure: Don’t believe the hype Australian Treasurer Scott Morrison made a big song and dance about new infrastructure spending in the Federal Budget. But while he shouldn’t be considered a public enemy as some new infrastructure... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ wary of raising interest rates too soon The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision to leave interest rates at 1.75% today and signal that it doesn’t expect to raise rates until late 2019 supports our view that the financial markets have got... 11th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Mar.) The latest retail sales data were much weaker than most had anticipated and will add to growing concerns about the health of the household sector. In particular, the sizeable slowdown in real retail... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
