Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Stillborn student cap adds to inflationary pressure The government's planned caps on foreign students won't see the light of the day because the Senate won't approve them. While foreign student commencement will still fall over the coming year, the... 22nd November 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Antipodean central banks will tread different paths on policy over the forecast horizon. With the... 21st November 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ still on track to cut rates to 2.25% We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut its policy rate by 50bp, to 4.25%, at its meeting next week. With inflation back at target, the labour market loosening rapidly and activity in the... 20th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Muted housing recovery won’t prevent rapid rate cuts While we expect the RBNZ to cut interest rates by the most since the GFC over the coming year, housing affordability was never as stretched at the start of an easing cycle as it was at the start of... 19th November 2024 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Rising household size will weigh on house prices A plunge in the average household size kept housing demand strong during the pandemic even as population growth ground to a halt. RBA estimates suggest that the average household size has remained low... 18th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will only start cutting rates in Q2 We learnt this week that the Australian labour market remained on solid ground in October, having loosened very little since the start of the year. The data will only reinforce the RBA's view that... 15th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Oct. 2024) With the labour market still on sturdy ground, there is a growing risk to our forecast that the RBA will cut rates as soon as February next year. 13th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q3 2024) Wage growth eased markedly in Q3, as workers in the awards system received much smaller pay hikes than last year. Although wage growth should ease further in the coming quarters, the ongoing weakness... 13th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia will be fairly insulated from Trump 2.0 The RBA left rates unchanged on Tuesday, while maintaining a broadly neutral stance. However, the Bank’s meeting was quickly overshadowed by the US election and the prospect of a second Trump... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Weakness in productivity growth partly structural The recent weakness in productivity growth is only partly due to a cyclical hangover from the pandemic as it also reflects the structural weakness in investment. With investment growth set to remain... 7th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q3 2024) The modest rise in the unemployment rate last quarter belies the precarity of the jobs market. We still believe the unemployment rate will eventually rise to a peak of 5.6% by end-2025. The dismal... 5th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will start cutting rates early next year Although the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained a broadly neutral stance at its meeting today, we still think it will start to lower interest rates as soon as February next year. However, with the... 5th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Where will interest rates trough and why? We expect interest rates to be cut to around the equilibrium of 3% or so in the US, UK and Australia. But rates in the euro-zone and Canada seem likely to fall below their equilibria next year... 4th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to cut rates in Q1 as capacity pressures ease Financial markets continued to scale back their expectations for rate cuts by the RBA following the release of Q3 CPI data this week. As a result, t hey are now fully pricing in a rate cut only in May... 1st November 2024 · 5 mins read
