Africa Economics Update Kenya’s economy rebounds in Q2 The Kenyan economy received two pieces of good news today, with figures showing that inflation remained stable in September and economic growth picked up in Q2. We believe that the country, a net... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Chinese slowdown fears overstated Speculation regarding a sharp economic slowdown in China has raised worries about the impact on African economies. We believe that these fears are overdone, for three key reasons. First, the prospects... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth slower, but not collapsing Emerging market (EM) growth has slowed further recently, but there is no sign of the collapse that some are talking about. In fact, there is tentative evidence that EM growth has begun to stabilise. 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Global headwinds, local responses batter markets African financial markets mostly performed poorly over the past month due to a combination of foreign shocks and botched domestic policy responses. We are increasingly worried about the risk of an... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Reasons for optimism are few and far between The past month has seen a raft of very bad news from key African economies. New government figures show that growth slowed in Q2 in Ghana and that South Africa’s economy actually contracted. Forward... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Another drop in frontier market currencies Uncertainty over the outlook for monetary policy in the US and renewed concerns about the health of China’s economy are weighing heavily on frontier market currencies. The weakest currency has again... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Alarm bells sound in key economies Worries about slowing growth in China and tightening monetary policy in America have dented some of the optimism surrounding African economies. But the consensus is still far too bullish about the... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB holds rates, slashes growth forecasts A string of grim growth figures led South Africa’s MPC to pause its gradual tightening cycle today. We had expected a hike at this meeting, and still think that accelerating inflation and a... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug.) Inflation in South Africa fell to 4.6% y/y in August, below our expectations and those of other analysts. We still expect the SARB to hike interest rates later today, but today’s CPI figure means that... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Rates on hold, Emefiele doubles down The Central Bank of Nigeria kept its key interest rate on hold today, while its embattled governor reiterated his support for controversial FX policies in the face of growing criticism. An overdue cut... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Financial risks still low in most Ems Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that, for all the recent talk of an “EM crisis”, financial risks in most of the emerging world are low. There is certainly nothing in the CERI to... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt holds rates amid Fed uncertainty The decision by the Egyptian central bank (CBE) to keep its benchmark overnight deposit rate unchanged at 8.75% today was probably a close call and we suspect that policymakers were swayed from... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Praiseworthy reform prompts embarrassing own goal The creation of a Treasury Single Account for Nigeria’s federal government is a sensible step, but poor implementation has sparked an entirely avoidable liquidity freeze. While the Central Bank has... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM debt: Where do the risks lie? The decision by S&P to downgrade Brazil’s sovereign debt rating to junk last week has refocused attention on EM debt burdens. As it happens, we have been warned about rising debt levels in Brazil for... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: New sales figures, same grim story Statistics South Africa has updated its calculations of retail sales figures, but the new data still paint a pretty miserable picture. Our GDP tracker suggests that the South African economy stagnated... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update In search of bright spots With good news thin on the ground in the emerging world, it’s reassuring that there are at least a few emerging markets (EMs) where growth is holding up well. Most notably, the economies of Central... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
