Emerging Markets Economics Update No need to fret about recent currency declines Most EM currencies have fallen over the past month, with many now at or close to multi-year lows against the US dollar. For the majority of countries the economic impact of recent currency weakness is... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier currencies suffer Frontier market currencies are having a difficult time, with only three of the 31 currencies that we follow gaining ground against the US dollar over the past month. The biggest decline has been in... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa finally begins tightening cycle The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) hiked its key interest rate from 5.75% to 6.00% today, judging that the threat of elevated inflation outweighed the risk of choking off already weak growth. The... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s gas sector reaches a turning point This week’s announcement that Italian energy group Eni has discovered gas reserves in the Nile Delta provides the first concrete evidence that the Egyptian government’s energy reforms are starting to... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM rate cutting cycle nearing an end So far in July, more EM central banks have hiked interest rates than have cut rates – the first time this has happened since December last year. We expect to see further policy rate cuts in a few more... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jun.) South African inflation came in at a below-consensus 4.7% y/y in June, but inflation remains on an upwards trend. While this surprise result will take some pressure off the Reserve Bank, we still... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports nearing a trough Exports from emerging markets continued to be dragged down in May by the impact of low commodity prices and the strength of the US dollar. But as these effects start to unwind over the second half of... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: Not out of the woods yet The rapid appreciation of the cedi over the past month is a positive sign, but it should not be taken to mean that Ghana has successfully resolved its economic problems. The country’s economy remains... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Subdued demand will undermine cocoa prices The latest European and North American cocoa grinding data continue to point to subdued demand. Combined with a rebound in Ghanaian production, we think that the price of cocoa will fall this year. 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Last growth engine spluttering Today’s retail sales figures confirm that consumer spending growth in South Africa is faltering, weakening the one sector that has propped up growth so far in 2015. This supports our below-consensus... 15th July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jun.) The seemingly inexorable rise of Nigerian inflation – which reached a 28 month high of 9.2% y/y in June – will add to the pressure on the central bank to raise interes trates later this year. 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Still stuck in a rut The slowdown in EM growth should bottom out over the second half of this year, but we don’t foresee a significant rebound in 2016-17. 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: Weak shilling prompts rate hike Today’s decision to hike interest rates by 150bp reflects the Bank of Uganda’s concerns about currency weakness. But with export prices subdued and political risk rising, we expect that the shilling... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Long-term outlook still positive Kenya has been in the headlines for all the wrongreasons over the past few months, and its economy is struggling. But while the country faces realproblems, we still believe that the economy holds... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (May) After a strong start to the year, South Africa’s platinum group metals (PGM) production fell substantially in May. This underpins our view that continued power disruptions, coupled with an increased... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Another rate hike to shore up shilling The surprise move by Kenya’s Monetary Policy Committee to hike its key interest rate by 150bp today, for the second consecutive meeting, was a signal that the new Governor is serious about curbing... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
