Africa Economics Update China, domestic woes weigh on African markets African financial markets performed poorly over the past month due to acombination of domestic economic problems and deteriorating investor sentimenttowards emerging markets on the back of worries... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth lacklustre, but not collapsing EM growth edged down further in June. But for all the gloom in the headlines, we see no sign of the collapse some are talking about. In particular, in China, after a weak start to the year, conditions... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Structural issues, not oil prices, drag down growth Yesterday’s Nigerian GDP figures showed that the country’s economy slowed even more sharply than weexpected in the second quarter. While low oil prices have battered the economy, the recent figures... 26th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will policymakers respond to the market rout? China’s interest rate cut has helped to stem the panic that has gripped emerging markets in recent days, but it has also raised the obvious question about whether other EMs may follow suit. We doubt... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Jun.) Although the latest data show stronger output in the South African PGM sector in June, the risk of strike action has risen in the last month and the potential for further power disruption remains. We... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q2) The sharp drop in South African GDP in Q2 was the second worst outturn since the depths of the global financial crisis. Today’s data may prompt the Reserve Bank’s MPC to think twice before next month... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Making sense of the EM sell-off The rout in EM financial markets is generating increasingly hysterical headlines with many commentators seemingly fighting to outdo one another with predictions of doom and gloom for emerging... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Which frontier market peg could be the next to go? The recent devaluation of China’s renminbi and the slump in commodity prices were the two key factors behind Vietnam’s decision last week to widen the dong trading band with the dollar and the... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Oil not the only worry Nigeria’s economy has struggled this year, with the most obvious cause being the recent collapse of global oil prices. But this isn’t the only obstacle to faster growth in Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM currencies take a beating on China worries The impact of China’s renminbi devaluation is continuing to be felt across emerging markets. The Kazakh central bank today scrapped its trading band for the tenge, which subsequently fell by over 20%... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Still room for revision of rate expectations in EM bond market Local currency government bonds have been a port in the emerging market (EM) storm during the past year, as investors have revised down their expectations for policy rates. While they are now... 20th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul.) Inflation in South Africa ticked up to 5.0% in July, and we expect that it will continue to rise over the coming months. Accelerating inflation and a weak rand mean that the Reserve Bank is likely to... 19th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update After the falls: where next for EM currencies? The most recent declines in emerging market currencies have been driven by renewed falls in global commodity prices, China’s ‘devaluation’ of the renminbi, and worries about the prospect of monetary... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Defending currencies ultimately futile Many African central banks are running down scarce foreign exchange reserves in a doomed effort to defend overvalued currencies from painful adjustments. But with commodity prices likely to remain... 17th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jul.) Today’s figures show that Nigerian inflation remained at 9.2% y/y in July, but we still expect that inflation will pick up later in the year. FX restrictions and the eventual weakening of the naira... 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Output (Jun.) Today’s manufacturing output figures were slightly above consensus, but still point to a contraction in the economically-crucial sector. Firms have failed to benefit from a weaker rand, another sign... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
