Africa Economics Update Nigeria: New cabinet faces daunting economic challenges Investors are likely to welcome the long-delayed appointment of a federal cabinet in Nigeria. But the newly-appointed ministers face an up-hill battle to revive the economy, and it isn’t clear how... 11th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Output (Sep.) Today’s manufacturing output figures were sharply above consensus, and show that the economically crucial sector returned to growth in September. This is a welcome sign, and supports our view that the... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Oct.) The further rise in Egyptian inflation to 9.7% y/y in October was driven almost entirely by an increase in the food component, which is highly volatile. Stripping out food prices, inflation actually... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Will Lonmin’s call for cash impact PGM prices? Under pressure from labour unrest, rising costs and weak platinum prices, Lonmin said this week that it will cease trading if its plan to raise capital in a rights issue of new shares is unsuccessful... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia: Currency crisis prompts sharp rate hike The Bank of Zambia’s decision to hike rates by 300bps was a predictable response to last month’s inflation surge. And with the currency likely to remain under pressure, further hikes remain possible. 3rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Signs of stabilisation in EM manufacturing October’s manufacturing PMIs, published today, contain early signs that the worst may finally be over for manufacturers across the EM world. The headline index improved both in key large EMs, such as... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The sharp fall in South Africa’s October manufacturing PMI supports our view that the country’s manufacturing sector will struggle over the coming months. 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation to rebound soon Although aggregate EM inflation slowed slightly in September, it is set to rise in the months ahead as the drag from last year’s slump in oil prices fades. 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM rates to follow divergent paths The shift towards looser monetary policy in the emerging world earlier this year is over and, with the first rate hike in the US inching nearer, we think that many EMs are likely to tighten policy... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s fiscal woes: Looking beyond the deficit Despite the steep fall in oil prices and a very weak economic growth, we expect that Nigeria’s budget deficit will remain relatively contained in 2015 and 2016. As we explain in this Watch, however... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Higher eurobond yields show shifting sentiment The high yield of Ghana’s new eurobond provides yet more evidence that market sentiment towards African dollar debt has turned. Equity and currency markets, meanwhile, performed poorly across the... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Signs of improvement in latest EM data Against the backdrop of ongoing talk of an EM slowdown, it appears that growth in the emerging world has actually been fairly steady in recent months. In fact, the latest reading of our EM GDP Tracker... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Cote d’Ivoire & Tanzania: Peaceful elections a welcome sign Peaceful elections held earlier this month in Cote d’Ivoire and Tanzania were welcome signs of improving institutions in both countries. While final results haven’t been announced yet, the fact that... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Upcoming elections key to outlook for several FMs Four frontier markets are due to hold national elections in the coming month. The most high-profile election is in Argentina where Daniel Scioli, the candidate of the ruling left-wing coalition... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s medium-term budget still looks too hopeful The South African government’s newly-revised macroeconomic forecasts announced in today’s medium-term budget policy statement seem more plausible than those in February’s budget. Even so, the... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth subdued but stable There has been very little in the latest data to justify fears of a widespread collapse in emerging markets. While economic growth remains subdued, conditions appear to have stabilised in recent... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
