Africa Economic Outlook Grim outlook for major economies, optimism elsewhere Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa’s two largest economies (Nigeria and South Africa) will remain depressed in 2016 but we expect better performances from the region’s smaller markets. Nigeria’s oil-focused... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM currencies stable as Fed lift-off approaches Relative calm in most EM currencies over the past month (the Colombian peso and Russian ruble being the obvious exceptions) supports our view that emerging markets are generally well placed to... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Contraction in EM exports to ease in 2016 EM export revenues are on track to fall by a trillion dollars (equivalent to about 3.5% of EM GDP) this year compared to 2014. Although exports are set to remain weak in 2016, we expect the pace of... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Finance minister’s sacking will spook investors The surprise removal of Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene is a very worrying development. Mr. Nene was a rare advocate of fiscal discipline, and his sacking adds to a string of increasingly autocratic... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Ten key calls for EMs in 2016 The EM world looks to have grown by its weakest pace since the global financial crisis in 2015, but things should start to improve next year. In this Focus we outline the ten key issues that we think... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Retail sales cannot support growth indefinitely Retail sales were surprisingly buoyant in October, but we do not believe that this is sustainable. We expect that South Africa’s economy will continue to perform poorly in 2016. 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Oct.) South Africa’s PGM production rose in October after three months of declines. However, labour disruptions and weak prices have forced the largest miners to restructure and cut their capital... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q3) Data released this morning showed that South Africa’s current account deficit widened in Q3 as a result of higher domestic spending. 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Most EMs well-placed to weather Fed tightening Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that financial risks in the emerging world in aggregate are low and there is little to suggest that the onset of Fed tightening will trigger an EM... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Business Confidence (Nov.) The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) business confidence index retreated to near its historic low in November, providing yet another sign that expectations of an improvement in... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) South Africa’s November Manufacturing PMI fell to a six year low, and - while there is a possibility that the figure could be revised - we believe that monetary tightening and slow growth have... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update China-Africa: What to expect from this year’s FOCAC This Friday South Africa will host the sixth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), a triannual summit jointly convened by China and the Africa Union. The forum will be Africa’s highest-profile... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian equities slide It’s been a bad month for Nigerian markets as local stocks have declined further, reaching their lowest level since February. The latest leg down appears to have been triggered by the central bank’s... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation now rising in more EMs than it is falling Although aggregate EM inflation edged down in October, the number of EM economies that recorded a rise in inflation last month exceeded those where it fell. We expect this trend to continue in 2016. 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Brazil a weak link amid EM stabilisation Emerging market (EM) growth appears to have slowed a touch in September on the back of the deepening recession in Brazil. Even so, there are no signs of the collapse in broader EM growth that some... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN slashes rates and its own credibility The Central Bank of Nigeria cut its key policy rate in a surprise move today, the latest signal that Governor Emefiele sees slow growth, rather than the slow-burning balance of payments crisis, as... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
