Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q4) The larger-than-expected South African current account deficit in Q4 of last year highlights the country’s external vulnerabilities and means the rand is likely to remain under pressure. Coming... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM commodity slowdown: cyclical or structural? The slump in growth in EM commodity producers partly reflects a deterioration in potential growth rates in these economies but is mainly the result of cyclical weakness caused by a collapse in their... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What would a ratings downgrade mean for South Africa? South Africa’s disappointing 2016 budget published last month has reinforced concerns about the prospect of a ratings downgrade to junk status. This would clearly be damaging to the government’s... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Manufacturing PMI surveys fall across EMs The fall in February’s manufacturing PMI surveys across emerging markets serves as a reminder that, while the worst for the industrial sectors in most EMs is probably behind us, conditions remain... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q4) Weaker-than-expected Q4 GDP data from South Africa underline the economy’s sluggish growth prospects. At the margin, we suspect that these data make it less likely that the Reserve Bank will follow up... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Will South Africa suffer Brazil’s fate? The main reason why South Africa has not followed Brazil into a deep recession is that the shock to its terms of trade has been less extreme. Our core view is that South Africa faces an extended... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth stable but subdued Our GDP Trackers suggest that aggregate EM growth was stable at the end of last year as a dip in Emerging Asia was offset by signs of recovery in Emerging Europe . The improvement in Emerging Europe... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Price pressures from currency slumps set to fade Sharp falls in currencies pushed up inflation in Emerging Europe and Latin America last year. The impact in Emerging Europe has already started to unwind and we expect the same in Latin America before... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Which EM equity markets are set to shine? Time will tell if the recent rebound in emerging market (EM) equities was a turning point, but we remain cautiously optimistic that they will outperform those in the developed world in 2016/17. 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Ukraine’s political crisis re-escalates Political tensions have once again come to the fore in Ukraine, putting the country’s IMF programme at risk. Although the government survived a no confidence vote, the ruling coalition has fallen... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: 2016 budget falls short of expectations South Africa’s 2016 budget was a damp squib and is likely to dent the government’s recent efforts to regain economic policymaking credibility. While the budget is now based on more realistic growth... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Growing divergences among EMs Aggregate EM growth has continued to disappoint in recent months with signs of a renewed (albeit small) deceleration in the latest data. Perhaps more important though is the widening divergence in... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What next for EMs? Over the past week we have published a four-part series analysing the key issues that will shape the outlook for emerging markets. In this Update , we summarise the main messages. 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Nigeria: Balance of payments problems escalating The strains in Nigeria's balance of payments are growing, threatening to push Sub-Saharan Africa's largest economy into a full-blown crisis. The Nigerian economy has been battered by the falling price... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Was the EM boom built on sand? Rapid EM growth in the 2000s was driven by a wave of liberalising reforms that produced genuine economic transformation across the emerging world, but potential growth has now slowed. Accordingly... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Naira collapses as crisis deepens Strains in Nigeria’s balance of payments sent the country’s currency tumbling this month, at least on the parallel market, and we think the central bank will eventually have to devalue the official... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
