Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Recovery to grind on Economies across the emerging world have strengthened so far this year and we expect further improvements in the months ahead. But growth is likely to peak in 2017 at rates far below the averages of... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: devaluation needed for capital flows to pick up Some analysts have argued that Egypt won’t devalue the pound until the country has a sustainable source of capital inflows, but we think this misses the point. The country is unlikely to experience a... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery continued in Q3 The EM manufacturing PMIs for September suggest that industry across the emerging world performed better in Q3 than in Q2. That said, the index remains consistent with relatively weak growth in... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rebounded in September, but remained relatively weak. The indicator has been unreliable lately, but the tepid result supports our view that the economic acceleration... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Naira crashes on parallel market The widening gap between Nigerian’s official and parallel exchange rates highlights the CBN’s continuing influence over the official FX market. We expect that the official rate will be devalued by... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor A temporary pause in the EM recovery Our EM GDP Tracker suggests that, after accelerating for most of this year, EM growth was unchanged in July. We think that this pause in the EM recovery should prove to be temporary and we continue to... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor China still towards the top of EM worry list Our CERI suggests that financial risks for the average EM are the lowest in over 20 years. Even so, there are pockets of vulnerability. The CERI is flashing warning signs in Egypt, Colombia, Venezuela... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Q2 rebound not a sign of things to come After contracting sharply in Q1, South Africa’s economy has bounced back faster than many – including ourselves – had suspected. Growth will probably pick up a bit next year, but we suspect that South... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Is Africa’s economic downturn finally bottoming out? The latest GDP figures all support our view that economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole will be even worse in 2016 than it was in 2015, when it hit a 16-year low. The key question now is... 28th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM-wide inflation drops to seven-year low EM inflation is now at a seven-year low. Looking ahead, it is set to ease further in most major commodity producing EMs over the coming months, providing central banks with room to cut interest rates. 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt keeps rates unchanged, but large hikes lie ahead The decision by Egypt’s central bank to keep its key interest unchanged at 11.75% today, despite the recent sharp rise in inflation, suggests that large rate hikes are only likely once an IMF deal is... 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: MPC Statement hints tightening cycle complete Today’s statement from the South African Monetary Policy Committee suggests that rates in the country are no longer likely to be hiked later this year. 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM central banks remain in easing mode Emerging market policymakers have been in loosening mode in recent months, with our EM interest rate diffusion index showing that more EM central banks cut rates than hiked again in August. Rate cuts... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontiers turn to international bond markets An increasing number of frontier markets are turning to the international bond markets as they look to paper over the cracks in their finances. Argentina got the ball rolling earlier this year when it... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug.) August’s within-target inflation reading of 5.9% y/y makes it all but certain that the Reserve Bank will hold its key interest rate at 7.00% at its meeting tomorrow. 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN ignores government, maintains tight policy The MPC’s decision to hold rates at 14.00%, thus rebuffing government calls for looser interest rates is an encouraging sign of the bank’s independence. We expect that rates will have to rise later... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
