Global Markets Update Have EM currency investors forgotten about the Fed? Emerging market (EM) currencies have decoupled from broader movements in the US dollar in recent months despite a growing sense that the Fed will hike rates again before year-end. A realisation that... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Mozambique: What to make of the latest debt revelations It seems likely that Mozambique will eventually reach a debt restructuring deal with its creditors. But the revelation of yet more hidden debt (or another currency fall) could result in a messier... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the latest jump in EM “junk” bonds sustainable? The rally in emerging market (EM) “junk” bonds has continued unabated in recent days, but we think that this year’s strong gains may soon go into reverse. That alone would probably be enough to cause... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports recover as commodity prices stabilise South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell dramatically last month. The sharp fall in the measure of future conditions suggests that hopes of a swift improvement in the country’s economic and political... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s banks look increasingly frail Concerns about the health of Nigerian banks have risen over the past month. Indeed, as we explain in this Watch, it now looks increasingly likely that parts of the financial sector will require... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy falters in Q3 August output data suggests that South Africa’s economy did not sustain the rapid growth posted in Q2 into Q3. We expect that growth will be very weak over the remainder of 2016 and into 2017. 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep.) September's slightly weaker-than-expected inflation figure supports our view that the SARB will hold its key policy rate unchanged at 7.00% over the coming quarters rather than hiking rates. 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of the surge in EM foreign currency debt sales Sovereign foreign currency bond sales by emerging markets could top $100bn this year although, outside a couple of vulnerable countries, it seems unlikely that these will cause future debt problems. 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world eased a little last month, and they remain well below the levels seen earlier in the year. 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The end of the Golden Age Widespread expectations for a sustained rebound in emerging market growth after the slowdown of recent years will be disappointed. The 2000s were a transient “Golden Age” for the emerging world, with... 13th October 2016 · 20 mins read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Aug. 16) South Africa’s total mine production continued to fall in August, but PGM output recovered as miners took advantage of higher prices. Looking ahead, we think there is a risk of supply disruptions in... 13th October 2016 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC production ramps up as Nigeria and Libya return OPEC production rose in September as Libya and Nigeria ramped up exports. Saudi Arabia’s output did fall, but this is likely to be a seasonal effect rather than a policy shift. 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Political risks hit Mexican peso and South African rand The Mexican peso and South African rand have been buffetted by political developments in recent weeks, as Donald Trump continued to take aim at Mexico and South Africa’s Finance Minister was charged... 11th October 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Output (Aug) While above very muted expectations, manufacturing output data for August suggest that economic growth slowed in Q3. 11th October 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ethiopia: Political crisis rocks African growth star The government’s decision to establish a state of emergency could worsen Ethiopia’s rolling political crisis. The deteriorating situation risks knocking the country off its current growth trajectory. 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep.) Egyptian inflation dipped to 14.1% y/y in September, but this is unlikely to mark the start of a downward trend. Policymakers are edging to closer to an IMF deal, so a fresh devaluation of the pound... 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
