Africa Economics Update Ghana: political success in an economy on the cusp of recovery Ghana’s recent election is, first and foremost, a ringing political success. On the economic front, we doubt that the election will trigger a sharp change in policy. But given that Ghana’s economy was... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Disappointing end to a painful year The latest figures from across Africa suggest that most economies in the region continued to perform poorly at the end of 2016. Activity data from South Africa suggest that the region’s most... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Ambitious budget unlikely to be realised President Muhammadu Buhari’s latest budget proposal is overly ambitious; we expect that both spending and revenue will disappoint. While Mr. Buhari presented his spending plan as way of lifting the... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: More and more red lights flashing October output data suggest that, after a very weak Q3, South Africa’s economy may have contracted outright at the start of Q4. Figures released today show that retail sales fell by 0.2% y/y in... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Fed tightening unlikely to cause major problems for EMs Our proprietary indicator of EM financial risk remains close to a 13-year low, which should help to reassure anyone concerned about a spate of crises across the emerging world in 2017. In particular... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov.) Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world reached a ten-month high of $75bn last month. This was driven mainly by an acceleration in outflows from China, but it seems that... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response S. Africa Current Account (Q3) South Africa’s current account position deteriorated again in Q3. The wide deficit is the key reason why we expect that the rand will remain under pressure in 2017. 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy headed for a brutal end to the year October’s mining and manufacturing data were both worse than even the most pessimistic analysts had expected. This suggests that, after a very weak Q3, the economy may have slowed even further in Q4. 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Nov.) Egyptian inflation surged to 19.4% y/y in November following the float and subsequent 50% drop in the pound against the US dollar, as well as fresh subsidy cuts. Inflation looks set to rise even... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Tepid recovery as “Big Three” continue to struggle We expect that economic growth in Africa will pick up a bit in 2017 after a disastrous result in 2016. But the region’s recovery will be very weak, largely because of the poor performance of Nigeria... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q3) South African Q3 GDP data showed that the economy slowed by even more than most had anticipated. While the Reserve Bank has sounded a little more hawkish over the past month, today’s weak data support... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Ten key calls for EMs in 2017 Far from being the catastrophe that many had expected 2016 was – as we anticipated – a year of stabilisation and recovery for many emerging markets. In this Focus we outline the ten key issues that we... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Nov.) The small drop in Egypt’s PMI last month suggests that the economy hasn’t deteriorated significantly following the pound’s float and subsequent 50% fall against the US dollar. But with inflation set... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing PMI remains near two-year high The EM manufacturing PMI edged down in November, but still suggests that conditions in manufacturing sectors are much healthier than a few months ago. Emerging Europe, in particular, appears to have... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The improvement of South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in November should not distract from the fact that the measure still points to a very poor performance. All of the early data suggests that the... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Trade Balance (Oct.) South Africa’s trade balance improved in October, but this was driven largely by a fall in imports. This may be an early sign that domestic demand weakened. 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
