Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi loosens fiscal policy, Tunisia reforms face delay Data released this week confirmed that higher oil prices have prompted Saudi Arabia’s government to loosen fiscal policy further and we expect this to continue over the next few quarters, boosting... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Budget plans put focus on weak fiscal positions Policymakers in South Africa and Nigeria both laid out fiscal plans this month, but their responses to weak revenues were very different. South Africa’s new finance minister announced a wider deficit... 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s budget targets growth, while Nigeria tightens South Africa’s new finance minister used this week’s budget statement to signal a shift away from further austerity, suggesting that Pretoria is prioritising support for the weak economy. Nigerian... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African public debt: Red lights flashing Worries about Africa’s rising public debt have focused on Mozambique and Zambia, but the situation elsewhere is less stable than it first appears. Nigeria’s debt position, for example, is very fragile... 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa budget speech, Angolan recession, Ethiopian reshuffle Despite the weakness of the economy, South Africa’s new finance minister will probably use next week’s budget review to tighten fiscal policy, rather than to announce new stimulus measures. On a... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Recovery losing steam Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will probably strengthen a touch in 2019, but growth across the region will remain weaker than consensus expectations. We think that growth in Nigeria will slow... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Nene resigns, PDP picks candidate, Nigeria eyes eurobond The resignation of South Africa’s finance minister boosted the rand this week by demonstrating President Ramaphosa’s firm stance on corruption. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s key opposition party selected its... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Weathering the storm? Economic growth has held up far better than financial markets in the emerging world over the past few months. But while some countries will continue to do well, EM growth in aggregate is now slowing... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana’s revised GDP, Uganda hikes, Rand faces tough month New GDP figures have presented a more flattering picture of Ghana’s economy, though obviously actual output remains unchanged. The Bank of Uganda hiked its key interest rate this week, adding to signs... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly African Rates: Loosening cycle spluttering to a halt Central banks across Africa held their rates unchanged this week, strengthening our view that the region’s long loosening cycle has now come to an end. Nigeria’s election cycle will get into gear next... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Growth stumbles, policymakers turn hawkish Figures released over the past month showed that the South African and Angolan economies both contracted in the first half of the year, with South Africa entering a technical recession in Q2... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia slipping into crisis, SARB holds back Zambia’s debt worries escalated this week, and it’s increasingly difficult to see how the country can avoid a full-blown crisis. Elsewhere, yesterday’s MPC vote in South Africa was closer than we’d... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB hawkish, Zambia’s debt troubles There are growing suggestions that the South African Reserve Bank will raise interest rates at its meeting next week, but the weakness of the latest activity data and of inflation expectations mean we... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa in recession, Focac summit, Kenya fuel costs Figures released this week showed that South Africa’s economy performed even worse than we’d thought in Q2. Headline growth will probably recover in the second half of the year, but we’ve downgraded... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa & China: Putting the Focac summit in context Attention focused on China-Africa ties this week as leaders from across the continent met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing for a major summit. In this Update we attempt to situate the... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigerian growth slows, MTN fined, Theresa May in Africa Nigeria’s economy slowed in Q2, despite stronger non-oil growth. More recently, an unexpectedly big fine imposed on MTN this week will raise questions about the country’s regulatory environment. The... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
