Africa Economic Outlook Tight fiscal policy to constrain the recovery Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to accelerate over the next couple of years, helped by a more favourable external environment as well as falling inflation and interest rates. But tight fiscal... 27th June 2024 · 19 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya protests could reignite sovereign default fears The escalating protests in Kenya will add to the near-term headwinds facing economic activity as well as raise further question marks over the government’s ability to push through fiscal consolidation... 25th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA GNU reform challenge, Kenya tax U-turn The government of national unity (GNU) formed by South Africa’s ANC and DA has led to a rally in local financial markets, but forming this unity government may prove to be the easy part. The necessary... 21st June 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (June 2024) After a strong start to the year, aggregate EM GDP growth will slow over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Emerging Asia the outperformer and Latin America the... 20th June 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa’s economy slowly turning the corner South Africa’s new government of national unity (GNU) will welcome signs that the economy showed signs of perking up at the start of Q2. We think this burst of momentum has further to run, although... 19th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (May.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate was unchanged at 5.2% y/y in May and, while still some way off the 4.5% mid-point of the SARB’s target range, the formation of a government of national unity... 19th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria food prices, Kenya budget, ANC-DA deal A surge in food prices in Nigeria this week presents a challenge to the optimistic tone the authorities are trying to strike on the inflation outlook. To contain these inflation risks for good, the... 14th June 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update ANC-DA coalition helps to calm investors’ nerves Reports that the African National Congress (ANC) has reached a deal with the centre-right Democratic Alliance (DA) to form a “national unity” government will be welcomed by investors. If confirmed... 14th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun. 2024) Net capital inflows into EMs have climbed back into positive territory in recent weeks, driven by a sharp rise in foreign investors’ purchases of Turkish government debt. This strength could continue... 11th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA’s uncertain coalition talks, Nigeria’s strike South Africa’s post-election uncertainty continued this week, with the ANC outlining its desire for a government of national unity with a broad range of opposition parties. This looks like a non... 7th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Attention turns towards the return of La Niña A return of La Niña could provide some respite for those commodity producers who have been hit hardest by El Niño. But it could also pose problems for others – not least in South America – and so... 6th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM growth robust in Q1 but disparities persist Aggregate EM GDP growth remained strong in Q1, though we still expect a slowdown later this year. At a regional level, Emerging Asia will lead the pack, however there are tentative signs that... 6th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q1 2024) South Africa’s economy contracted by 0.1% q/q in the first quarter of the year and the latest evidence suggests that fragility has continued into Q2. A less acute drag from loadshedding should support... 4th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing performance strong but uneven The EM manufacturing PMI remained at a three-year high in May but the picture is becoming increasingly nuanced at a country level. Meanwhile, the PMIs also showed price pressures rose again last month... 3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s election: entering the unknown South Africa’s final election results confirmed that support for the ANC fell far short of a majority, leaving it reliant on a coalition with one of the larger opposition parties to stay in power. The... 3rd June 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (May.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI plummeted in May and, while we expect conditions to improve as the electricity situation continues to stabilise, alongside recent activity data it underlines the... 3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read
