Africa Economics Weekly Eskom bailout, Kganyago sounds hawkish, CBN on hold This week’s Eskom rescue package didn’t go far enough to meaningfully address the firm’s problems, but was expensive enough to increase the risk of a sovereign debt downgrade in November. SARB... 26th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Learning to live with slower Chinese growth Growth in China is slowing, but fears of a big drag on Africa are overdone. While the Asian giant’s demand for some commodities will soften, it will remain a key trade and investment partner. Indeed... 25th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa rebound, rate cuts, Zambia bond rally Policymakers in South Africa reduced their key rate by 25bp this week, and we think that they will cut again later this year. Central banks in Nigeria, Angola, and Ghana will probably join in on the... 19th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa: Economy will finally turn the corner in 2020 Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa weakened in early 2019, but activity should strengthen in the second half of the year and into 2020 as policy across the region loosens. Even so, our forecasts are below... 11th July 2019 · 25 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: More evidence of Q2 recovery Activity data for May added to the evidence that the economy rebounded following its contraction in Q1. Even so, we think that the Reserve Bank will cut its policy rate from 6.75% to 6.50% next week. 11th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at the EM investment slump EM investment growth probably slowed to its weakest rate in twenty years in early 2019, although most of that seems to be related to tighter financial conditions and low commodity prices rather than... 5th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Buhari warms on trade, Ramaphosa plans Eskom rescue Nigeria’s usually mercantilist government seemed more open to regional integration this week. But while Abuja’s decision to join the AfCFTA trade pact is positive, plans for a West African common... 5th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Sino-Africa trade, Ethiopia crisis, weak investment in SA African leaders visiting China for a trade expo this week are sure to praise their ties with Beijing, but several big Chinese-funded infrastructure projects in the region are being delayed or... 28th June 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Regional tensions flare up The past month has been dominated by the escalation of tensions between the US and Iran and the risk of an outright conflict is rising. Admittedly, President Trump decided to call off airstrikes on... 26th June 2019 · 14 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Naira rumours, South Africa recovery, Ethiopia reforms Despite this week’s mixed messages from Nigerian officials, we doubt that the country’s FX system will be reformed anytime soon. In South Africa, the latest activity data suggest that the economy... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Confusion in South Africa, debt deal in Mozambique A political dispute over the mandate of South Africa’s Reserve Bank caused the rand to weaken this week. We doubt that the bank’s charter will be changed, but the row highlights intra-ANC divisions... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Hurdles ahead for Ramaphosa The inclusion of several investor-friendly ministers in South African president Cyril Ramaphosa’s new cabinet has been interpreted as a sign that the government may renew its push for reform. Local... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Rate cuts just around the corner in SA and Nigeria Central banks in South Africa and Nigeria left policy settings unchanged at their meetings this week but the accompanying communications supported our long-held view that interest rates will be cut... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly S. Africa stumbles, Unemployment rises, Kenya bond sale Activity data out this week added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy contracted by about 2% in Q1. Figures out next week, by contrast, will probably show that growth accelerated in Nigeria... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Weak mandate for Ramaphosa, Another term for Emefiele The comparatively poor showing by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ANC in Wednesday's election will probably weaken the reformist leader in his on-going struggle with intra-party rivals... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus South Africa: Election unlikely to spur reforms President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ANC is all-but certain to win this week’s election, but we’re sceptical that this will provide impetus to his sluggish reform drive. The ruling party will, after all... 6th May 2019 · 1 min read
