Africa Economics Weekly Moody’s outlook fears, Kwanza collapse, Springboks! Moody’s is likely to adopt a ‘negative’ outlook on South Africa’s local currency debt rating later today, paving the way for a downgrade to ‘junk’ status. The review comes days after the government... 1st November 2019 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Policy moves make headlines in key economies Policymakers in South Africa and Angola admitted the severity of their countries’ economic problems this month, while their Nigerian peers moved further down the road to autarky. South Africa’s... 31st October 2019 · 14 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Waking up to fiscal realities Today’s ‘mini-budget’ was a painful admission that South Africa clearly faces a slowly-unfolding fiscal crisis. The gloomy tone may be an attempt to push for unpalatable economic reforms. But today’s... 30th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Counting the cost of the wave of protests in EMs While protests have spread across several EMs, most notably Hong Kong, parts of Latin America and Lebanon, there is no mechanical link between unrest and economic growth and asset prices. 25th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Angola shifts to float kwanza, SA opposition cracks Angolan policymakers abandoned their currency trading band this week, suggesting that they are getting serious about reforming the FX system. The official exchange rate has fallen sharply in recent... 25th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria flirts with autarky, South Africa slows The Nigerian government’s decision to ban all trade across the country’s land borders on Tuesday will only have a small macroeconomic impact, but it highlights the worrying shift towards more... 18th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: GDP flat in August, risk of Q3 contraction South Africa’s retail sector didn’t perform as badly as the mining or manufacturing sectors in August, but there is still a growing risk the economy contracted over Q3 as a whole. 16th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria budget, more weakness in SA, Uganda rate cut Nigeria’s president announced his draft budget this week, the first time in several years that the document has been published in Q3. This raises the possibility that lawmakers will be able to pass it... 11th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Côte d’Ivoire: Election clouds robust growth outlook Côte d’Ivoire’s upcoming elections in 2020 raise political risks facing the economy. But our core view is that the vote will pass peacefully, and that looser fiscal policy combined with more... 8th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly CBN ups pressure on banks, ANC balks at reforms The Central Bank of Nigeria increased pressure on commercial banks to extend more loans this week, but we doubt that the new targets will have much effect. Elsewhere, South African leaders seem to be... 4th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) South Africa’s PMI slumped to a decade low of 41.6 in September, adding to the evidence that – despite the rebound in Q2 – the underlying pace of economic growth remains very weak. 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Dovish tone in Kenya, fiscal woes in Nigeria Kenyan policymakers held their key interest rate at 9.00% earlier this week, but dovish commentary strengthened our view that they will loosen policy next year. Nigeria’s central bank governor, by... 27th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ethiopia: More fragile than it looks Ethiopia’s investment-focused economic model has attracted widespread praise, but has also created dangerous external vulnerabilities. Were domestic instability or EM-wide risk aversion to cause... 26th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Growth and debt worries mount across the region Figures released over the past month brought bad news for almost all of Sub-Saharan Africa’s key economies. After a surprisingly-strong rebound in Q2, growth in South Africa seems to have slowed at... 26th September 2019 · 13 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Rates on hold, but cuts coming in Ghana & Nigeria Policymakers in South Africa, Nigeria and Ghana sang from the same hymn sheet this week by maintaining their key rates on hold. While we think that the window for monetary easing has now closed in... 20th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB: Window for a cut closed, rates will be on hold Given policymakers’ decision to keep their key rate on hold at 6.50% today, we now think that South African interest rates will remain unchanged over the coming quarters. Policymakers do not seem... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
