Africa Economics Weekly Vaccine AUphoria?, polls in Uganda, debt relief demand The announcement that the African Union (AU) has secured a large COVID-19 vaccine order is a positive step towards Africa’s recovery from the coronavirus crisis, but the road remains long and bumpy... 15th January 2021 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly 2021 off to a bad start in SA, limits to regional trade pact The near-term outlook for South Africa has taken a turn for the worse in recent weeks as virus containment measures have been tightened to try to curb a second wave of COVID-19. Mounting pressure on... 8th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Lagging behind: second waves, vaccines & recoveries The latest national accounts data from Sub-Saharan Africa tell a story of the good, the bad and the ugly. South Africa’s economy mounted a surprisingly strong recovery in Q3, and a solid rebound in... 18th December 2020 · 12 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly COVAX concerns, momentum at Eskom, Zambian mines Reports this week pointing to the multilateral COVAX facility’s high risk of failure underline that the roll-out of vaccines for many African countries is likely to be slow, delaying the ensuing... 18th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update 2021 in focus: what lies ahead for Sub-Saharan Africa After the storm of 2020, policymakers in Sub-Saharan Africa will be hoping for calm in 2021. But with vaccine distribution posing a key challenge in the region, economic recoveries may be slower than... 16th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Nov.) Another jump in Nigerian inflation, to 14.9% y/y in November, will probably be followed by elevated readings in the coming months. But as the headline rate peaks, probably in early 2021, we think that... 15th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia’s dance with the IMF, restrictions looming in SA The confirmation this week that Zambia requested an IMF funding program is a positive step, which is likely to improve the chances of a wider debt restructuring deal with external creditors. Meanwhile... 11th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: fiscal tightening can’t be delayed forever Victory for Nana Akufo-Addo in Ghana’s presidential election this week increases the likelihood of fiscal stimulus in the near term, which would support the economic recovery. But the precarious state... 11th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South African state of COVID-affairs, cocoa wars South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s speech to the nation last night suggests that, for now at least, the government is continuing to prioritise the economy over battling a second wave of COVID... 4th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update COVID-19 vaccines and the implications for Africa The distribution of effective COVID-19 vaccines is likely to be much slower in Africa than in many other parts of the world and the “vaccine bounce” in domestic economic activity will probably also be... 3rd December 2020 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The reversal of relative fortunes within EM equities We think that the outperformance of equities in EM EMEA and Latin America relative to those in EM Asia in November is a sign of things to come, as the world recovers from COVID-19. 30th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack “Vaccine boost” faces hurdles Encouraging news about highly effective coronavirus vaccine trials has brightened Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic outlook. However, the region is facing higher barriers compared to many other parts of... 27th November 2020 · 12 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria flip-flops, policymakers in financing pickle Mixed signals from recent policy announcements in Nigeria raise doubts about the administration’s commitment to pro-business reforms, especially in relation to the currency. At least the government... 27th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s economy suffering two-speed recovery Nigeria’s Q3 GDP data showed that ongoing weakness in the oil sector was more than offset by a rebound in the non-oil economy and we expect this two-speed recovery to continue over the coming quarters... 23rd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly “Vaccine boost” to take time, let’s talk about debt A string of good news from COVID-19 vaccine producers may be followed by further positive updates in the coming weeks, but it is likely to take longer for the “vaccine boost” to reach much of Sub... 20th November 2020 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Focus Debt relief: the state of play and what’s next There has been much less progress towards debt relief for African economies than many had hoped. And governments’ diverse array of creditors means that the “Common Framework” recently unveiled by the... 16th November 2020 · 19 mins read
