Emerging Markets Economics Update Supply shortages and EM inflation risks Supply-related price pressures are building, particularly in Central Europe and parts of East Asia. And while the factors behind this should prove temporary, output gaps in the most-affected countries... 9th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA tightens virus curbs, Ghana surprises with rate cut The recent tightening of containment measures to curb South Africa’s third virus wave will probably not be as damaging for the economy as earlier rounds of restrictions. Even so, the prospect of... 4th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Naira devalued for real, utility deals in Ethiopia & SA Policymakers in Nigeria appear to have bowed to pressure to devalue the official exchange rate, which will probably improve the public finances and help unlock multilateral financing. That said, a... 28th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Contrasting currency tales Currencies of the two biggest economies in Africa have had contrasting fortunes recently, with Nigeria’s official naira exchange rate recently devalued but the South African rand soaring on the back... 27th May 2021 · 13 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s debt plans, SA wages, Africa summit in Paris External borrowing plans put forward by Nigeria’s president this week would leave the debt position even more vulnerable to falls in the naira. In South Africa, signs that the government is opening... 21st May 2021 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Vaccine supplies drying up, delaying recoveries Sub-Saharan Africa’s already slow vaccination campaigns received another blow with news this week that a key supplier, India’s Serum Institute, is delaying shipments further. African policymakers will... 21st May 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: mixed March data point to a small Q1 expansion South Africa’s hard activity data for March showed a strong rebound in industrial sectors while the retail sector struggled. Over Q1 as a whole, GDP probably managed to expand by about 1.5% q/q on an... 19th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Gains from commodity price moves to flame out African economies have benefitted from the rally in commodity prices in recent months, but we think that most of the gains from the terms of trade improvements are behind us. In the coming quarters... 18th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA rand, third wave risks, power problems The South African rand has been a star performer amongst major EM currencies so far this year, but we think that it will suffer one of the biggest losses against the US dollar by year-end. Meanwhile... 14th May 2021 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly (Pe)Ace out, budget balancing act in SA, vaccine patents The suspension of Ace Magashule, the Secretary General of South Africa’s ruling ANC party is likely to go some way in strengthening the hand of President Cyril Ramaphosa in an intra-party fight. But... 7th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly India-Covax-Africa channels, price pressures in SA India’s unabating second virus wave risks further delays to vaccine exports through the Covax initiative to much of Sub-Saharan Africa, which would set back economic recoveries further. South Africa... 30th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Recoveries lifted by the commodity high… for now The sharp rises in copper and iron ore prices this month will have given a much-needed boost to African producers such as Zambia and South Africa. Gold also traded higher in April compared to March... 29th April 2021 · 10 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Recovery in slow motion Slow vaccine rollouts, tight fiscal policy and weakness in tourism sectors will hold back recoveries across Sub-Saharan Africa. Virus containment measures will probably remain in place for some time... 28th April 2021 · 22 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook New virus waves to drag on the recovery The surge in virus cases across large parts of the emerging world and the slow pace of vaccine rollout mean that the headwinds facing the EM recovery are building. EM currencies are likely to see... 28th April 2021 · 25 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Wage talks in SA, Nigeria tightens FX restrictions Mounting trade union pressure on South Africa’s government and state-owned enterprises to increase salaries poses a serious threat to the government’s fiscal austerity plans and any signs that the... 23rd April 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Delayed vaccination in SA, dovish SARB, downbeat IMF The announcement this week that South Africa is suspending the roll-out of Johnson&Johnson vaccines, on which it heavily relies, risks further delaying an already slow vaccine campaign. Meanwhile... 16th April 2021 · 5 mins read
