Africa Economics Update Nigeria: rate hike risks easing, FX rules surprise Policymakers in Nigeria kept their benchmark rate on hold at 11.50% at today’s MPC meeting and, if we’re right in expecting the economic recovery to disappoint, policy settings are likely to remain... 27th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Vaccines and variants in SSA, post-unrest fallout in SA A boost to vaccine supplies in Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to breathe some fresh air into struggling vaccine campaigns across the region at a time when third waves are sweeping across key economies... 23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Dovish SARB to keep rates low for some time Policymakers in South Africa kept their benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50% today and the dovish tone of the communications supports our view that interest rates won’t rise until the middle of next year... 22nd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We expect EM currencies to remain under pressure We doubt that today’s rebound in emerging market currencies marks the start of a renewed rally and expect them to continue to depreciate against the US dollar over the next few years. 21st July 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM goods exports may have passed the peak After surging over the past year, the latest data provide signs that EM goods exports have now passed their peak. However, they are still likely to stay at elevated levels for some time yet. 21st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jun.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate eased in June, to 4.9% y/y, and with soft underlying price pressures and clouds over the economic recovery, the Reserve Bank will stand pat at tomorrow’s MPC... 21st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at the Delta variant’s threat to recoveries The spread of the Delta variant of COVID-19 poses a much bigger risk to economic recoveries in emerging markets than in developed markets. India, South Africa, and South East Asia have suffered... 20th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics South Africa after the unrest There are signs that the worst of the violence and unrest that has gripped South Africa this week may be over. Any hit to economic activity is unlikely to be long-lasting but the risk that the... 16th July 2021 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s unrest: the fallout for the public finances The disruption to economic activity from the unrest and violence in South Africa, which now appears to be dissipating, will probably prove to be limited, but the impact on the public finances is... 16th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jun.) The latest drop in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate, to 17.8% y/y in June, is likely to reassure policymakers that price pressures are softening and that policy tightening is not necessary to curb... 16th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: further weakness to follow mixed May activity data South Africa’s hard activity data for May painted a picture of a bumpy recovery in Q2, as retail sales grew strongly but industrial sectors showed signs of weakness. With tighter virus containment... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Assessing the impact of the unrest in South Africa There is clearly a lot of uncertainty over how the protests in South Africa in recent days will develop but there are reasons to think that the impact on economic activity will be towards the milder... 13th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA wage negotiations, Ethiopia debt restructuring South Africa’s government is giving up further ground in wage negotiations with trade unions, raising the threat that the austerity plans unravel. Elsewhere, Ethiopia has revealed plans to restructure... 9th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Taking stock of the improvement in EM budget deficits Budget deficits have narrowed from their 2020 peaks across the emerging world. The improvements in Brazil and Argentina – where deficits appear to be narrower than their pre-pandemic levels – provide... 8th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update OPEC impasse: what next? The failure of OPEC+ to agree to new production quotas has created considerable uncertainty about the group’s oil production going forward. In this Update, we lay out three possible scenarios for OPEC... 6th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s oil reform, Angola’s debt, SA restrictions Nigeria’s long-awaited Petroleum Industry Bill is on the verge of making into law, but it probably comes too late to propel a marked turnaround in the oil sector and will not resolve many other issues... 2nd July 2021 · 5 mins read
