Africa Economics Weekly Ghana struggling with debt, oil price winners and losers The sharp rise in Ghana’s sovereign dollar bond yields this month suggests that investors are coming around to our view about the country’s worrying debt trajectory. Meanwhile, the rebound in oil... 22nd October 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at the drivers of EM inflation A big chunk of the recent rise in headline inflation in EMs has been driven by a jump in energy inflation which will be transitory. But core inflation has also risen in parts of Latin America and... 22nd October 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Oil woes to hold back recoveries in Angola & Nigeria Falling oil production has weighed on the Nigerian and Angolan economies, with the latter likely to suffer its sixth consecutive annual decline in GDP this year. While output should rise next year, we... 21st October 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep.) Although South Africa’s headline inflation rate picked up to 5.0% y/y in September, soft underlying price pressures and a fragile economic recovery mean that policymakers will only normalise monetary... 20th October 2021 · 2 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor Lower valuations may not help EM equities outperform We don’t think the low valuations of emerging market (EM) equity indices relative to those of developed markets (DMs) is reason to expect EM equities to outperform over the next couple of years. 18th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly FX orthodoxy in Nigeria? Strikes in SA, Ethiopia’s conflict Comments by Nigeria’s vice president endorsing a more market-based exchange rate regime reflect growing concern about the distortionary effects of the current FX system, but there is no evidence that... 15th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Sep.) The drop in the headline inflation rate in Nigeria, to 16.6% y/y in September, will ease pressure on the central bank to raise rates and allow policymakers to focus on supporting the economic recovery... 15th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Aug.) South Africa’s hard activity data for August point to a bumpy recovery following a large hit to the economy in July, adding to reasons to think that interest rates are unlikely to be raised imminently... 13th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital inflows into EMs appear to have dropped over the past few weeks as investors have turned more risk averse. Looking ahead, a further rise in US Treasury yields could lead to larger outflows... 13th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Signals from the SARB, Nigeria’s humdrum budget The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) Monetary Policy Review published this week put monetary policy normalisation back in the centre of attention, and it now seems that policymakers are unlikely... 8th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update What would a lower inflation target mean for S. Africa? South African Reserve Bank (SARB) Governor Lesetja Kganyago has recently raised the prospect of lowering the inflation target and, in this Update, we answer five key questions on what it would mean... 8th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China’s long-term property decline: the fallout for EMs Irrespective of how the current problems in China’s property sector are resolved, property construction there is entering a period of structural decline. Among other EMs, the main effects will be felt... 7th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The vaccine tide is slowly turning A likely flood of exports from India and China, as well as a ramping up of donations from the US, should help to significantly boost vaccine supply for the many poor EMs in Africa and South and South... 6th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM supply constraints mount Although the emerging market manufacturing PMI ticked up last month, EM industry has been undergoing a slowdown for some time. And the surveys show that supply constraints are mounting, which is... 1st October 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Debt data disclosures, SA fiscal buffer evaporating Reports suggesting that many developing countries, including some in Africa, have larger external debts to China than officially reported reinforce concerns about a lack of transparency. At the very... 1st October 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI softened last month, pointing to a slowdown in the rebound from the hit to activity in July from tighter virus containment measures and violent unrest. Supply... 1st October 2021 · 2 mins read
