Emerging Markets Economics Update FX bond issuance ramps up, but the outlook is cloudy EM sovereign FX debt issuance surged over the past year and at the start of 2025, albeit with many sovereigns returning to global markets and issuing at high interest rates. Borrowing does not look... 14th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Mozambique unrest, China courting Africa Mozambique’s political unrest looks set to continue following opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane's return and his claim that he is the country’s rightful president. Eyes will next turn to ruling... 10th January 2025 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: interest rates heading down in 2025 We think Nigeria’s interest rate hiking cycle is over. The CBN is likely to be confident that moderating petrol prices and a more stable naira will quickly see the disinflation process resume. Still... 8th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM sovereign debt risks: not just a Brazil problem Brazil’s public finances have been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons over the past month. But while an extreme case, the combination of a large budget deficit and limited political will to... 7th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria: inflation, rates, and budget optimism Nigeria’s headline inflation rate crept up further in November, but we’re not convinced that this will prompt the central bank to deliver more rate hikes. Otherwise, President Tinubu unveiled the 2025... 20th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Will Trump bring a halt to US outperformance? Donald Trump’s policies will be a net drag on US GDP growth over the next couple of years, but we doubt that his re-election will prevent the US from remaining the world’s pre-eminent global economy... 19th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa next year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in certain... 18th December 2024 · 0 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook A brighter outlook but a fiscal shadow Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa next year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in certain... 17th December 2024 · 19 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (December 2024) EM GDP growth picked up in the second half of the year but faces headwinds in 2025 from tight policy at home and challenges abroad. Our growth forecasts generally sit below the consensus. Monetary... 16th December 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SA activity, naira gains to fade, Ghana election While data out this week showed renewed struggles in South Africa’s mining sector, other figures suggest that a recovery has taken hold in Q4, which should accelerate next year with help from lower... 13th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Inflation in South Africa: more downside surprises to come Inflation in South Africa is now running at extremely low rates by historic standards. While we think it will edge up from here, the extent of spare capacity in the economy and tight fiscal stance... 13th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec. 2024) Capital inflows into EMs have been resurgent over the past few weeks amid a broader improvement in global risk appetite. Looking ahead, however, likely policies from President-elect Trump point to a... 12th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Trump casts a shadow, fiscal risks to intensify Tight policy, deteriorating terms of trade and, in Mexico’s case, US trade protectionism will keep GDP growth in Latin America weak and below consensus expectations in the coming years. Fiscal risks... 12th December 2024 · 22 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A guide to EM elections in 2025 2025 will be a far quieter year in terms of elections than this year was. But there are some key votes that will, among other things, determine whether Argentina’s President Milei builds support for... 10th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA GDP, Biden’s Angola visit, Ghana election The surprise 0.3% q/q contraction in South Africa’s GDP was largely due to a slump in agriculture which should unwind. Along with low inflation and continued monetary easing, we expect the economic... 6th December 2024 · 7 mins read
