Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Sep.) South Africa’s hard activity data for September point to output continuing to rebound in the sectors hardest hit by violent unrest in July. But the economy probably still contracted over Q3 as a whole... 17th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate stayed at 5.0% y/y in October, with underlying price pressures remaining soft. That, combined with the fragile economic recovery, supports our view that the... 17th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Oct.) The fall in the headline inflation rate in Nigeria to 16.0% y/y in October will bolster the case for policymakers to keep their benchmark interest rate on hold in order to support the economic... 15th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB to hike or not to hike? That’s investors’ question The big event next week is South Africa’s MPC meeting which will be a very close call, but on balance we think that the first rate hike will not be delivered just yet. And, further ahead, the... 12th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA’s MTBPS: sticking with austerity… for now Today’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) in South Africa signalled that the government is broadly sticking with its fiscal consolidation plans. But with growing pressures to ramp up social... 11th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Where are frontier sovereign debt risks greatest? The precipitous decline in Sri Lanka’s foreign exchange reserves means the risk of a near-term sovereign debt default is increasing. Elsewhere, Tunisia also stands out on account of its public debt... 11th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update External strains abate, but pockets of risk remain While external risks have subsided across much of Sub-Saharan Africa in recent quarters, pockets of vulnerability remain. External (and, as a result, debt) vulnerabilities look most acute in Ethiopia. 9th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA’s post-election policy direction, Ethiopia crisis spirals Next week’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement in South Africa is likely to provide an early signal that the government is scaling back its fiscal consolidation plans following the ruling ANC party’s... 5th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fiscal risks loom largest in Lat Am & S. Africa Among the major EMs, long-term fiscal problems look most challenging in South Africa and several large Latin American economies. And rising interest rates will make the fiscal squeeze needed to... 3rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA local elections shrink political capital for austerity The ANC’s poor showing in South Africa’s local elections this week may strengthen the hand of factions within the party that want to push back against fiscal consolidation. This tilts the risks... 3rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI dropped back last month, pointing to a further slowdown in the sector’s already weak recovery. Persistent headwinds will probably keep manufacturing activity subdued. 2nd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly ANC election struggles, Eskom woes, Nigerian subsidies Local elections that take place in South Africa on Monday are unlikely to have a direct impact on macroeconomic policymaking, but a poor showing for the ruling ANC could intensify pressure on the... 29th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Mounting headwinds set the stage for slower growth The EM recovery is now entering a more difficult phase as the boost from economic re-opening fades, supply shortages bite, growth in China weakens and the terms of trade worsen for major commodity... 28th October 2021 · 26 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Hope on vaccines, but still a long way to go COVID-19 vaccine coverage remains pitifully low across much of Sub-Saharan Africa, with less than 10% of populations having received at least a first dose in most countries. But there are signs that... 28th October 2021 · 11 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Headwinds beyond vaccine woes intensifying Extremely low vaccine coverage continues to cast a dark cloud over recovery prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa and this will be compounded by deteriorations in the terms of trade and tighter fiscal... 27th October 2021 · 22 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM recovery faces mounting headwinds After what appears to have been a strong Q3, we expect recoveries in many EMs to enter a slower phase as re-opening boosts fade and goods shortages bite. 26th October 2021 · 2 mins read
