Africa Economics Weekly Lockdown lessons from SA, influx of jabs and cash? South African policymakers appear to be reluctant to impose restrictions in the face of the threat from the Omicron variant, but their hand could be forced if the health system comes under strain. In... 3rd December 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Debt sustainability in Zambia: mission impossible? Zambia’s new administration has made encouraging noises about restoring macroeconomic stability and addressing the country’s public debt problem. But it will be a tall order to secure a large... 2nd December 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Disruptions no longer worsening, but Omicron a threat November’s PMIs offered tentative signs that the worst of the supply disruption may have passed, but the bigger picture is that manufacturers in the emerging world remain stretched. And while it’s... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update We anticipate that the rand will remain weak The South African rand has rallied over the past few days after reaching its lowest level against the US dollar in more than a year following last week’s news about the Omicron variant. Even if the... 1st December 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rebounded last month, but the emerging fourth virus wave and the threat from the Omicron variant has clouded the outlook for activity in the sector and the wider... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Omicron shines spotlight on low vaccine coverage The emergence of the Omicron strain of COVID-19 reinforces the need to boost vaccine coverage in Sub-Saharan Africa from current low levels. Most countries have administered at least one vaccine dose... 30th November 2021 · 12 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor The impact of Omicron on EM trade If the new Omicron variant leads to tighter containment measures across the world, that would probably prop up demand for pandemic-related goods to the benefit of Asian exporters. Meanwhile, oil... 30th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Omicron puts demand back in the spotlight We were already downbeat on the outlook for most commodity prices in 2022, not least because we thought that prices had lost touch with demand fundamentals. The risk of Omicron-related effects on... 29th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The Omicron variant and the threat to EMs There’s a lot that we don’t know about the new Omicron variant. But if it proves more virulent, the economic fallout would probably be largest in EMs in parts of Africa and South and South East Asia... 29th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Recoveries trembling under new virus variant threat A concerning new virus variant identified in Southern Africa has already prompted the re-imposition of restrictions on travellers from the region and triggered a flight to safety in global financial... 26th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update CBN maintains interest rates, but hints at policy shift The Central Bank of Nigeria kept its benchmark rate on hold at 11.50% today, but the statement signalled that monetary policy normalisation is now on the horizon. While we don’t expect interest rates... 23rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly African central banks and the EM rate hike club This week, the South African Reserve Bank joined its EM counterparts in tightening monetary policy, but we don’t think that policymakers in South Africa will raise interest rates as aggressively as... 19th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM tightening cycles have further to run Inflation in the emerging world has generally surprised to the upside in recent months. But while inflation in most parts of Asia remains at levels which central banks are comfortable with, it has... 19th November 2021 · 10 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB: lift-off for rates, but tightening cycle to be slow The South African Reserve Bank fired the starting gun on monetary policy normalisation with a 25bp hike in the repo rate, to 3.75%, today amidst growing concerns about inflation risks. But the... 18th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q3) The drop in Nigeria’s GDP growth to 4.0% y/y in Q3 points to the recovery in activity outside the key oil sector petering out. We think this will continue over the coming quarters, weighing on... 18th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Sep.) South Africa’s hard activity data for September point to output continuing to rebound in the sectors hardest hit by violent unrest in July. But the economy probably still contracted over Q3 as a whole... 17th November 2021 · 3 mins read
