Africa Economics Weekly Ghana’s debt fight, rate decisions, Ethiopia’s conflict The Ghanaian authorities took steps this week to shore up the cedi and tackle the poor public finances but officials may eventually have to back down and turn to the IMF to shore up investor... 25th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB continues to tighten, hawks gaining ground The upside inflation risks created by the war in Ukraine and the solid performance of South Africa’s economy prompted the Reserve Bank to push ahead with its tightening cycle today, raising the repo... 24th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Clouds gathering over the near-term outlook Activity in large parts of the emerging world has rebounded following the easing of Omicron waves, but the war in Ukraine has caused the growth outlook for most EMs to worsen again. While commodity... 24th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update War in Ukraine exacerbates external pressures Shifts in commodity prices in response to the war in Ukraine will provide a sizeable boost to current account positions in Angola and (to a lesser extent) Nigeria this year. Elsewhere, however, higher... 23rd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack War in Ukraine to drag on EM GDP growth The war in Ukraine will have several economic repercussions for the emerging world. We have lowered our aggregate EM GDP growth forecast for 2022 by 1%-pt, to 3.2%. Russia aside, the biggest downward... 23rd March 2022 · 9 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Feb.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate was unchanged at 5.7% y/y in February but, with the war in Ukraine increasing upside inflation risks and signs that the economic recovery has been robust... 23rd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Can EMs weather Fed tightening? For the most part, EMs are well placed to withstand rising US interest rates, but there are pockets of vulnerability where external financing needs are significant. Among the large EMs, Turkey... 22nd March 2022 · 13 mins read
Africa Economics Update Assessing public debt risks in Africa In this Update, we roll out our sovereign debt heat map that provides a snapshot of debt risks across Sub-Saharan Africa. The pandemic has increased debt burdens across the continent and, with... 21st March 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Cost of FX policies rising in Nigeria, fuel price cap in SA? Evidence is building that Nigeria’s unorthodox exchange rate policies are fuelling inflation and increasingly damaging economic activity. Meanwhile, the authorities in South Africa are reportedly... 18th March 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Commodity shifts to worsen most EMs’ external positions Major oil producers are among the main beneficiaries of the rise in commodity prices due to the war in Ukraine. As a result, we’re becoming less concerned about Colombia’s external vulnerabilities. In... 17th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Jan.) January’s hard activity data show that South Africa’s recovery gained ground following the Omicron virus wave. Taken together with more timely figures that point to a continued rebound in activity and... 16th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Feb.) The small rise in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate to 15.7% y/y last month provides further evidence that draconian foreign exchange policies are causing shortages and fuelling price pressures. There... 15th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Higher oil prices, SA’s terms of trade and fuel inflation The latest economic data suggest that South Africa’s recovery has gained ground, and some sectors will benefit from elevated metals prices caused by the war in Ukraine. But at a macro level, a... 11th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor War in Ukraine heightens risks in fragile EMs Financial markets in Central Europe have been hit hard by the contagion from the war in Ukraine, but spill-overs to other EMs have been limited so far. If the war were to result in a sustained period... 10th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor The war in Ukraine has triggered renewed outflows from EM financial markets as risk aversion has taken hold, but there are few signs of severe financial contagion. And even if outflows were to... 8th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q4) South Africa posted decent GDP growth of 1.2% q/q in Q4, shrugging off the Omicron virus wave. While elevated commodity prices will support the economy over the coming months, growth is likely to slow... 8th March 2022 · 2 mins read
