Africa Economics Update What to expect in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2022 Sub-Saharan Africa will remain a laggard in the global recovery. The weak economic backdrop means that South Africa’s government is unlikely to stick to its austerity plans and the debt ratio will... 12th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA experience offering Omicron hope? Nigeria’s budget Evidence is growing that South Africa’s Omicron-driven virus outbreak has been brief and not as economically damaging as previous waves. This is a promising omen for other economies in Sub-Saharan... 7th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update The latest on South Africa’s Omicron experience The recent sharp fall in virus cases in South Africa provides an early encouraging sign that Omicron-driven outbreaks may run their course relatively quickly. In South Africa’s case, the health system... 5th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Virus waves across SSA, SARB tightening cycle After a week filled with central banks around the globe pivoting in a more hawkish direction, we have now pencilled more hikes into our interest rate profile for South Africa (but only after a pause... 17th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The Powell pivot and what it means for EMs Yesterday’s Fed meeting confirmed a hawkish shift. Turkey aside, we doubt that this is likely to cause major strains in the balance of payments of most EMs. But the Fed’s hawkish turn may cause... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Emerging virus waves clouding recoveries beyond SA Much attention has been devoted to the Omicron-fuelled fourth COVID-19 wave ripping through South Africa but cases have picked up elsewhere in Sub-Saharan Africa as well, with especially sharp rises... 16th December 2021 · 12 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Uneven recoveries across EMs The recovery from the crisis over the course of this year has been uneven, with strong retail spending and industrial output setting the stage for a sharp rebound in the likes of Chile, Colombia and... 15th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Nov.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate rose to a slightly stronger-than-expected 5.5% y/y in November but, with core price pressures remaining soft and the economy struggling even before the latest... 15th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Omicron lessons from South Africa South Africa’s experience with Omicron so far offers tentative hope to other economies since it hasn’t pushed up the incidence of very severe illness in the same way that the Delta wave did. The... 13th December 2021 · 3 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Dec.) OPEC oil production increased in November, but once again by less than the group’s target. We think OPEC will continue to under-produce, but it should still account for a large share of the world’s... 13th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Omi-chronicles from South Africa and beyond South African officials seem to be pushing vaccine take-up to curb the latest Omicron-induced virus outbreak rather than tightening restrictions on activity. But with pressure building on the health... 10th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Omicron not yet swaying EM central banks The latest EM central bank meetings confirmed that policymakers in Emerging Europe and Latin America are still focused on high and rising inflation, rather than any downside risk to the economic... 10th December 2021 · 9 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s recovery losing some steam Timely activity figures suggest that Nigeria’s economy lost momentum in early Q4 as oil sector woes continued and the non-oil economy’s recovery slowed. Headwinds have only built since. 9th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Oct.) South Africa’s hard activity data for October confirm that the economy was struggling even before the emergence of a fourth virus wave, which will probably dampen activity further. In light of this... 9th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Turkey and frontiers in the firing line The dramatic slump in the Turkish lira over the past month once again leaves the currency firmly in crisis territory. One crumb of comfort is that Turkish banks are in a better position to cope with... 7th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q3) South Africa’s GDP contracted by 1.5% q/q in Q3 as violent unrest and a third virus wave hit the economy hard, and the more recent data suggest that activity remained depressed even before the latest... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
