Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s budget to sow seeds of fiscal slippage South Africa’s upcoming budget speech will probably contain better-than-projected fiscal results, allowing the finance minister to extend temporary spending measures without undermining near-term... 18th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three points on the EM tightening cycle After a series of aggressive interest rate hikes, tightening cycles in parts of Emerging Europe and Latin America may now be nearing an end. But inflation concerns mean that policy rates will remain... 17th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q4) Nigeria’s GDP growth was unchanged at 4.0% y/y in Q4 as a slightly smaller drag from the oil sector was offset by a weaker performance in the non-oil economy. But we think that growth will drop back... 17th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Dec.) December’s hard activity data show that South Africa’s economy held up well in the face of the Omicron virus wave. GDP probably expanded by around 0.9% q/q in Q4, implying growth of 4.6% over 2021 as... 16th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jan.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate edged down to 5.7% y/y in January, and with soft core inflation and a bumpy economic recovery, the monetary tightening cycle is likely to be more gradual than... 16th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from emerging markets have intensified over the past month as growing tensions between Ukraine and Russia and the prospect of tighter global monetary policy have caused risk... 15th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jan.) Inflation in Nigeria was unchanged at 15.6% y/y in January and the headline rate will probably soften only gradually. At this point, however, policymakers are unlikely to hike interest rates in... 15th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SONA takeaways, Nigeria FX policy, Ghana to the IMF? The economy was a key theme in Thursday’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) in South Africa as the president vowed to press ahead with his reform drive but gave some ground to those in his party... 11th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update SONA: Ramaphosa shies from letting off the fireworks South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa vowed to press ahead with his signature reform drive to boost the economy in Thursday’s State of the Nation Address, but most initiatives will take time to... 11th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s recovery switching to an even slower lane Timely activity data suggest that, over Q4 as a whole, Nigeria’s economy came close to a standstill. The weak economic backdrop is likely to prevent the CBN from raising interest rates in the coming... 9th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Commodity prices to turn into headwind Our downbeat view that most commodity prices will fall back by year-end is largely negative for economies across Sub-Saharan Africa, with Zambia and Angola likely to be hardest hit, although some net... 8th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What higher oil prices mean for EMs If oil prices were to remain at their elevated levels, they could push current account and budget balances into surplus in many of the EM producers. It would also ease any concerns about dollar pegs... 8th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa: ‘BIG’ expectations for SONA speech South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa, facing an intra-party leadership contest in December, is set to use next week’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) as an opportunity to drum up support. From... 4th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tightening financial conditions a growing headwind Financial conditions have continued to tighten in Latin America and Emerging Europe and will likely remain restrictive throughout the year, weighing on activity in both regions. Meanwhile, although... 4th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Sovereign debt risks becoming more acute Sovereign dollar bond spreads have widened significantly in several Frontiers over the past couple of months, driven largely by country-specific factors. There are reasons to be hopeful that outright... 3rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Most EM manufacturers take Omicron in their stride January’s PMIs suggest that, while industry in China, Brazil and Mexico is struggling, manufacturers elsewhere in the emerging world have started 2022 on a solid footing, despite the surge in virus... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
