Africa Economics Update Hawks’ majority in SARB to be short-lived Policymakers in South Africa upped the pace of tightening today, raising the repo rate by 50bp to 4.75%, as concerns about inflation (and inflation expectations in particular) have grown. We don’t... 19th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from EMs appear to have picked up over the past few weeks amid the general risk-off mood in global financial markets. This is a worrying development for countries with fragile... 18th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Mar.) South Africa’s activity data for March were weak and that was even before flooding in KwaZulu-Natal province dealt a fresh blow to the economy. Inflation figures released earlier today may have... 18th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Apr.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate remained close to the upper bound of the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range in April, at 5.9% y/y, and will stay there over the coming months. Tomorrow’s interest... 18th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation surge not just a food and energy story Higher food and energy prices go some way to explaining the rise in headline inflation rates across the emerging world, but this is only part of the story. Core inflation has also jumped in many EMs... 16th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Apr.) Inflation in Nigeria jumped to 16.8% y/y last month and the headline rate is likely to rise further as spillovers from the war in Ukraine filter through. Pressure to tighten monetary policy is... 16th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Monetary politics in Nigeria, Ghana’s efforts to curb debt Nigerian President Buhari’s instruction that current government officials planning to run for the country’s highest office should resign will probably leave the central bank without a governor, but... 13th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM sovereign debt: where do the risks lie? The strong dollar and spill-overs from the war in Ukraine have caused sovereign debt risks to escalate in some frontier markets. But most large EMs have far stronger public sector balance sheets... 11th May 2022 · 14 mins read
Africa Economics Update A primer on South Africa’s monetary policy reform The South African Reserve Bank is set to shake up its monetary policy setup. This Update provides some clarity on what policymakers will do and why, and what it means for monetary and credit... 11th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA recovery falters, wage talks, Kenya’s soft start to 2022 Recent flooding in a key province and warnings this week that power cuts could reach unprecedented levels are the latest in a long list of blows to South Africa’s economy that have repeatedly stifled... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What a strong dollar means for EMs While a stronger dollar is generally regarded as a headwind for EMs, we think it will only be a minor one for most major EMs, particularly compared with the headwinds from weakness in China... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Debt problems building Sub-Saharan Africa’s recovery is likely to remain slow going and our growth forecasts are generally below the consensus. While spillovers from the war in Ukraine will boost a handful of economies –... 4th May 2022 · 22 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The plunge in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in April suggests that there was a large blow to activity from flooding in a key province and renewed power cuts. One consequence of this economic... 3rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA’s privatisation push, Africa’s growing food insecurity Momentum appears to be building within South Africa’s ruling ANC party to shift towards a more private sector-led economic model. But given the party’s track record, we wouldn’t hold our breath... 29th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Growth to underwhelm as inflation surges Lockdowns in China and spillovers from the war in Ukraine will slow the EM recovery and growth is likely to be weaker than most expect. Recession risks are rising in Emerging Europe in particular. On... 28th April 2022 · 28 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Fiscal positions largely going from worse to bad Fiscal positions across Sub-Saharan Africa have been a persistent source of concern since the onset of the pandemic – and in some cases, even before. And the commodity price moves resulting from the... 28th April 2022 · 10 mins read
