Africa Economics Update Is Nigeria benefitting from a weaker naira? The Nigerian naira has fallen by more than 70% against the dollar since President Tinubu came to office, which has contributed to a surge in inflation that has weighed on economic growth. There are... 3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EMs, fracturing and the scramble for raw materials Access to commodities – particularly critical minerals – is a growing area of competition between China and the West. And those EMs with deposits of the minerals used in new and low-carbon... 3rd October 2024 · 13 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing slowed sharply in Q3 The fall in the EM manufacturing PMI in September suggests that growth slowed last quarter and we think this will continue over the coming months. The PMIs did at least provide encouraging signs that... 1st October 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rebounded in August, finally replicating the improvements we have seen in other survey indicators. A backdrop of interest rate cuts and improving supply conditions... 1st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly CBN surprise hike, Kenya’s turn to Abu Dhabi The Central Bank of Nigeria’s surprise interest rate hike this week highlighted the greater progress that the MPC wants to see on the inflation front and also importantly its steadfast ambition to... 27th September 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa from early next year. But the external environment will provide mixed fortunes, as falling... 27th September 2024 · 0 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep. 2024) Capital inflows into EMs have rebounded over recent weeks amid the start of the Fed’s easing cycle. Looking ahead, we expect EM inflows to hold up well as global monetary conditions ease further. In... 26th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM growth enters a slower phase Aggregate EM growth is entering a softer patch, despite the tailwind from the Fed’s easing cycle. Growth concerns will prompt central banks in much of Asia to cut interest rates. But stubborn... 25th September 2024 · 26 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Recovery to be held back by fiscal constraint A combination of falling inflation and looser monetary policy should help growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa from early next year. But tight fiscal policy will constrain the recovery and... 25th September 2024 · 19 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB’s paradox, floods in West Africa and Sahel The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) outlined a “goldilocks” scenario of stronger growth and lower inflation at its MPC meeting this week and, if supply side constraints continue to ease, it may feel... 20th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB cautiously cuts by 25bp The South African Reserve Bank finally joined the EM easing cycle today, lowering its repo rate by 25bp to 8.00%. While the MPC clearly has some lingering concerns about the inflation outlook, we... 19th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response S. Africa Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.'24) 19th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa Activity Data (Jul. '24) South Africa’s economy is enduring a clear divergence in its economic recovery. Consumer-facing sectors appear to be performing better but industry, particularly mining, continues to struggle. We... 18th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug' 24.) The dip in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 4.4% y/y, in August and the further decline in core inflation all but seals the deal on the SARB start an easing cycle tomorrow. We have pencilled... 18th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (September 2024) EM recoveries are beginning to slow and will continue to do so over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Asia the outperformer and Latin America the laggard... 17th September 2024 · 1 min read
