Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria budget pain, SA's latest electricity plan Data published by Nigeria’s Budget Office this week highlighted that, despite what should be a favourable high oil price environment, the public finances are actually getting worse. With the... 29th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Nigeria’s economic woes mount For a major net oil exporter, Nigeria’s worsening economic struggles in the current high oil price environment are striking. Low oil production, which was 30% below the country’s OPEC+ quota in June... 27th July 2022 · 11 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM risks building as global backdrop worsens EM GDP growth will be weaker than most expect in 2022 and 2023 as China’s economy rebounds only moderately and activity slows elsewhere. Inflation is set to remain elevated for some time yet, and... 26th July 2022 · 28 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Debt problems come to the fore Sub-Saharan African economies are suffering heavily from the spillovers from Fed tightening and the war in Ukraine. Policy in the region is likely to tighten further as a result, weighing on growth... 26th July 2022 · 24 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Debt risks and IMF deals, hawks gain ground Recently approved IMF financing will ease near-term balance of payment pressures in Tanzania and Kenya, but the Fund’s push to tighten fiscal policy will weigh on recoveries. Meanwhile, this week’s... 22nd July 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB slams on the monetary policy brakes South Africa’s central bank upped the pace of tightening further with a 75bp hike, to 5.50%, as policymakers’ intensifying fears about inflation (and inflation expectations) trumped any concerns about... 21st July 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What do rising bond yields mean for EM public debt? The rise in local currency bond yields across the emerging world poses a particular risk to fiscal positions in those EMs with large government financing needs and a short average debt maturity. Egypt... 21st July 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jun.) The jump in inflation in South Africa to 7.4% y/y in June keeps a 75bp interest rate hike on the table at the SARB’s meeting tomorrow. But with policymakers clearly concerned about the weakness of the... 20th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Inflation fight in centre stage at CBN The Central Bank of Nigeria followed up May’s 150bp interest rate hike with a 100bp increase in the benchmark rate today, to 14.00%, as worries about inflation continued to mount. We now expect a 50bp... 19th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Demographics to lift growth, but convergence still distant The latest population projections released by the UN this week reaffirm that demographics will support strong GDP growth in Sub-Saharan Africa in the long run. But similarly robust income convergence... 15th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM default risks: more than meets the eye The effects of the pandemic followed by the war in Ukraine have pushed a growing number of EMs into debt distress. And while some (Tunisia, Ghana) look likely to follow Sri Lanka’s path into default... 14th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response SA Activity Data (May) The disappointing batch of South African activity data for May suggests that the economy is on course for a mild fall in GDP in the second quarter. 14th July 2022 · 2 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (July) OPEC unveiled its oil market forecasts for 2023 in its monthly report today. OPEC is more bullish than us on demand, forecasting an increase of 2.7m barrels per day. But even though it is also quite... 12th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Focus Why is Nigeria struggling while oil prices are so high? Amidst sky-high oil prices, a stream of downbeat comments from Nigerian government officials on the state of the economy may seem mind-boggling. In this Focus, we outline what’s behind the country’s... 11th July 2022 · 13 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Political risks piling up, rand on the rocks Resurfacing political risks in some parts of Sub-Saharan Africa are another threat to recoveries that are already facing multiple headwinds, while at the same time raising the pressure on several... 8th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How far are we through the EM tightening cycle? Tightening cycles in Latin America and Emerging Europe are already at an advanced stage. Some 70-80% of the likely rate hikes in their cycles have already been delivered and policymakers will bring... 6th July 2022 · 3 mins read
