Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q4) Nigeria’s economy recorded a surprisingly large pick-up in GDP growth, to 3.5% y/y, in Q4 but recent disruptions caused by the demonetisation process are likely to have dampened growth at the start of... 22nd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Event Africa Drop-In: Nigeria’s crunch presidential election 1677160800 Nigerians go to the polls on 25th February for general elections which could put the country on a very different path.
Africa Economics Update Five key questions on Nigeria’s public finances No matter who wins the race to be Nigeria’s next president, the public debt-to-GDP ratio is likely to remain on an upwards path in the near-term. But victory for an opposition candidate could make the... 15th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jan.) Inflation in South Africa continued to decline, to 6.9% y/y in January, but we think that the Reserve Bank will err on the side of delivering a final 25bp rate hike to (7.50%) at the next policy... 15th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa triggers disaster law, Nigeria’s polls The declaration of a state of disaster in South Africa’s State of the Nation Address over the deepening energy crisis has grabbed the headlines and, in the small print, there were signs of a... 10th February 2023 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s sorry state of the nation South Africa’s upcoming State of the Nation Address will undoubtedly focus on addressing the deepening energy crisis. But there’s little that the authorities can do to ease power cuts in the near-term... 3rd February 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Unpacking Nigeria’s economic challenges In the latest of our Election Watch series ahead of Nigeria’s polls, we dissect the near-term economic challenges facing the next administration. Boosting oil production, overhauling the foreign... 3rd February 2023 · 5 mins read
Precious Metals Update South Africa’s platinum group metal supply to struggle The global supply of platinum group metals is likely to be increasingly strained by electricity shortages in South Africa. This poor supply outlook is a key reason why we forecast the prices of these... 3rd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry: brighter outlook, but headwinds persist The manufacturing PMIs picked up in most emerging markets in January, offering hope that the worst for EM industry may have now passed. But activity remains soft against the backdrop of high interest... 1st February 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI remained essentially unchanged, at 53.0, in January, but while the breakdown provided mixed messages, we think that the underlying picture for the manufacturing sector... 1st February 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Growth faltering in region’s biggest economies While the economic outlook in much of the world has turned less downbeat in recent weeks, the prospects for Sub-Saharan Africa’s two biggest economies have, if anything, got gloomier due to homegrown... 31st January 2023 · 12 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Debt talks in Zambia and Ghana, SA’s energy crisis Delays to Zambia’s debt restructuring threaten to hold up the country’s IMF deal and add to the signs that the Common Framework isn’t fit for purpose. Elsewhere, Ghana’s government appears to be open... 27th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Loadshedding tilts SARB’s focus towards growth The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) smaller-than-expected 25bp interest rate hike today and large cuts to its growth forecast make clear that its focus is pivoting to concerns about activity... 26th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update CBN back in hawkish mode… for now The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) raised the benchmark rate by 100bp, to 17.50%, today in a surprisingly aggressive decision. But with incoming data likely to add to evidence of easing price pressures... 24th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s loan-to-bond swap, SA power cuts permeating Plans by the government of Nigeria to swap central bank loans to bonds have hit a sticky patch, making it unclear whether the country can reap the associated economic gains. Elsewhere, the fallout... 20th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Nov.) November’s hard activity figures out of South Africa were a mixed bag, but we think that weakness in industrial sectors will increasingly dwarf any strength elsewhere especially as power cuts and... 18th January 2023 · 3 mins read
