Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) The rise in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in August essentially reversed the sharp decline in July on the back of weaker global demand as well as severe power cuts at home. We expect external... 1st September 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Political rollercoasters across the region Relatively peaceful election proceedings in Kenya and Angola this month have provided a lift to investor sentiment. But with the respective losing presidential candidates challenging official results... 31st August 2022 · 11 mins read
Africa Economics Update Angola: elections won’t prevent return to slow growth Angola’s elections on Wednesday may be more competitive than ever before, but the ruling party’s decades-long hold on power is unlikely to come to an end. Assuming President Lourenço secures another... 23rd August 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Jun.) The hard activity data out of South Africa for June suggest that the economy contracted by around 1.0% q/q in Q2, and we think that activity will remain weak in the coming quarters too. 17th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jul.) Inflation in Nigeria jumped to 19.6% y/y last month and we think that the headline rate will rise a bit further. Policymakers are likely to respond by raising the benchmark interest rate from 14.00%... 15th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s recovery looking bleak The latest data out of Nigeria suggest that GDP growth weakened further in Q2. Ongoing production problems in the oil sector will drag on growth in the coming year and, while that is likely to be... 15th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya’s elections up in the air, mixed FX bag across SSA The fact that Kenya’s elections have, so far, proceeded peacefully have supported a rally in the country’s bond market. But with no official results available yet and reports pointing to a tight race... 12th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Capital outflows from EMs have eased over the past month, helping to stabilise local asset prices. But we think outflows will pick up again before long. That’s a threat to those EMs whose current... 10th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ethiopia: Unlikely to replicate exceptional growth again Ethiopia has been grappling with the fallout from its internal conflict and severe drought which, coming alongside spillovers from the war in Ukraine, will result in much weaker growth in the coming... 10th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia’s creditors pledge debt relief, Kenya’s elections News that Zambia’s official creditors agreed to provide debt relief is certainly encouraging and will unlock IMF funding. But the terms of the deal remain unknown, leaving in doubt that the country’s... 5th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: elections no cure for economic woes Kenya’s general election scheduled for Tuesday is set against a challenging economic backdrop, and no matter the winner, the country’s outlook is likely to remain overshadowed by large macroeconomic... 5th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Five questions and answers on frontier default risks The spreads of sovereign dollar bonds over US Treasuries are in distressed territory in almost a third of EMs covered in the JP Morgan EMBI Index, with the majority of those being frontier markets. In... 3rd August 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing entering choppy waters The drop in the S&P Global EM manufacturing PMI last month suggests that a fading re-opening boost in China and weak global demand have caused industry to slow. And in parts of Eastern Europe, the... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update A brighter outlook for EM local currency bonds We continue to expect the yields of 10-year emerging market (EM) local currency (LC) sovereign bonds to rise over the rest of 2022. But we anticipate smaller rises than we did previously, given our... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The decline in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in July points to a large hit to activity from weaker global demand as well as severe power cuts at home. It will probably take some time before... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
