Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Sep.) September’s hard activity data out of South Africa were a mixed bag, but it looks like the economy narrowly avoided another contraction in Q3 (and thus a technical recession). Even so, with headwinds... 16th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Oct.) Data out of Nigeria showing a pick-up in inflation to 21.1% y/y in October offered little sign that price pressures are abating. And that’s before the effects of recent flooding and currency weakness... 15th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Manufacturing boost to SA, Kenya’s public finances The surprising strength of South Africa’s manufacturing data for September has lengthened the odds that the economy was in a technical recession over Q2 and Q3. And in Kenya, bond markets have rallied... 11th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Strikes in SA, naira under pressure, Ethiopia ceasefire South Africa is on the cusp of large public sector strikes which will deal another blow to the recovery and raise the risk of fiscal slippage just a week after the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement... 4th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Frontier currencies in the firing line Currencies in some of the largest frontier markets, including Nigeria and Vietnam, have come under pressure recently as the external backdrop has deteriorated and domestic policy concerns have mounted... 3rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria and the risks stemming from demonetisation The Nigerian central bank’s plans to replace high-value bank notes by the end of January will, if India’s experience in 2016 is anything to go by, disrupt activity and fail to address some of the... 3rd November 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI picked up in October but persistent electricity supply problems, tight fiscal and monetary policy and a worsening external backdrop mean that the economic recovery... 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly MTBPS: last of the good news on SA’s public finances? South Africa’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement on Wednesday provided further good news on the state of the public finances, but pressure for public sector wage increases is just one of a number of... 28th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: public finances in better health, but slippage likely South Africa’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement published today showed that the government hasn’t (yet) been tempted to spend the windfall from the improvement in the public finances this year. And... 26th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Storm clouds gathering Sub-Saharan Africa has suffered particularly heavily from the pandemic and then spillovers from the war in Ukraine, and the global recession will only add to the headwinds. Taken together with tight... 25th October 2022 · 24 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Recession looms as tightening bites Persistently high inflation and more aggressive monetary policy tightening now seem set to cause a global recession. While we had previously anticipated contractions in several economies, the gloom... 25th October 2022 · 50 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly What to expect from South Africa’s MTBPS? South Africa’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement, scheduled for Wednesday, is unlikely to provide the drama that the UK’s “mini-Budget” did, but we suspect that the government will tilt fiscal... 21st October 2022 · 6 mins read
Event South Africa Drop-In: Unpacking the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement 1666792800 Our Emerging Markets team gave our clients their immediate reaction to the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) on 26th October. The team addressed key issues, including:
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep.) While South Africa’s headline rate edged down to 7.5% y/y in September, the surprising strength of core inflation will push policymakers to deliver another 75bp hike in the benchmark interest rate, to... 19th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: sharp slowdown, debt restructuring on the cards Ghana’s economy held up well in the first half of this year but high and rising inflation, combined with monetary and fiscal tightening, means that a sharp slowdown is on the cards. Talks with the IMF... 12th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Aug.) Nigeria’s headline inflation rate surpassed 20% y/y for the first time in 17 years in August and we think that this will prompt the central bank to respond with a 50bp increase to its benchmark... 15th September 2022 · 2 mins read
