Emerging Markets Economics Update The World in 2023: What to watch for in EMs EMs will experience one of the broadest slowdowns in GDP growth in 2023 since the 1990s. China is one of the few places where growth will accelerate next year, but its move away from zero-COVID will... 15th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Nov.) November inflation data out of Nigeria came in stronger than expected, with the headline rate picking up to 21.5% y/y and price pressures increasing in m/m terms as well. Together with our expectation... 15th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Oct.) October’s hard activity data out of South Africa showed the economy’s strong performance in Q3 did not last into Q4. Industrial sectors, in particular, faltered. As headwinds mount, we expect a sharp... 14th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Nov.) Inflation in South Africa eased a bit more than expected, to 7.4% y/y, in November and there were encouraging signs that core price pressures are fading. The figures will provide room for the Reserve... 14th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Ghana secures $3bn IMF deal The news that Ghana has secured a $3bn staff-level agreement with the IMF will go some way to easing the country’s economic crisis, but the government still needs to clear a number of hurdles to put... 13th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Conundrum in SA, Nigeria’s cash limits, Ghana’s debt South Africa’s political upheaval took a breather this week but fears about the state electricity company, Eskom, have grown. Problems at Eskom not only pose a threat to economic activity but, if left... 9th December 2022 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Update Making sense of debt developments in Ghana As the authorities in Ghana take further steps towards a debt restructuring, in this Update we take stock of the latest developments and their economic implications. 7th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q3) South Africa’s economy rebounded in Q3, with a 1.6% q/q expansion, but the underlying picture was less rosy as growth was supported by a build-up of inventories; household spending contracted... 6th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Politics and policymaking in SA: stirred or shaken? South Africa’s political turmoil that severely endangered President Cyril Ramaphosa’s position has already shaken the country’s financial markets. In part, this is related to the prospect of the... 2nd December 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry set to slow further The EM manufacturing PMI broadly plateaued in November, but the surveys remained weak in parts of Central Europe and recorded sharp declines in Brazil, Colombia and Vietnam. On the bright side, price... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update “Farmgate”, Ramaphosa and South Africa’s economy The damning report into corruption allegations surrounding South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa has increased the possibility of him either resigning or being removed from office. Even if he stays... 1st December 2022 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI increased in November, to 52.6, but underlying activity in the sector is likely to remain subdued as the combination of sustained power cuts and fiscal and monetary... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Tightening cycles have a bit further to run Most central banks across Sub-Saharan Africa raised interest rates over the past month and, in contrast to many other parts of the emerging world, we think tightening cycles will last a while longer... 29th November 2022 · 11 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana’s fiscal mess, data & decisions wrap Official statements by the authorities in Ghana signalled commitment to restoring fiscal and debt sustainability, and left little doubt that this will include a sovereign debt restructuring. Meanwhile... 25th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q3) GDP growth in Nigeria slowed to 2.2% y/y in Q3 as woes in the oil sector intensified and key parts of the non-oil economy, such as agriculture and manufacturing, performed poorly. Even with pre... 24th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update CBN shifting in less hawkish direction The Central Bank of Nigeria raised the benchmark rate by 100bp, to 16.50%, today, and MPC members appear to be itching to take their foot off the monetary policy brakes. But we suspect that the... 22nd November 2022 · 3 mins read
