Africa Economics Update First thoughts on Kenyatta's victory On the face of it, an earlier-than-expected victory for Uhuru Kenyatta in Kenya’s presidential election has reduced the risk of public unrest and political uncertainty that had previously threatened... 11th March 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What is driving the weakness of the South African rand? Over the past decade, fluctuations in the South African rand seem to have been driven primarily by changes in global risk appetite. But while risk appetite has improved over the past six months, the... 8th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Should we worry about EM central bank independence? Fears that politicians in the emerging world are trying to tighten their grip over monetary policy are generally wide of the mark. But Hungary is a notable exception. 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Markets holding their nerve as Kenya delays election results Kenya’s parliamentary and presidential elections have so far passed relatively peacefully, helping to keep markets calm amid news that the results have been delayed due to technical problems. But the... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: 2013 budget doesn't fully restore fiscal credibility We doubt that Ghana’s fiscal deficit will fall as quickly as the Finance Ministry seems to expect in its 2013 Budget Statement. Coupled with the fact that growth is now picking up, this means that... 5th March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery stutters The latest PMI surveys suggest that the recovery in emerging world manufacturing has lost a little steam recently. Part of the weakness can be explained by the effects of the Chinese New Year, which... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African manufacturers still facing big challenges The South African manufacturing PMI ticked up in February, but the overall sluggishness of export demand and problems in the domestic supply chain means the sector still faces significant challenges... 1st March 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Crumbling BRICs - will the largest EMs regain their vigour? The recent slowdowns in the BRIC economies are largely structural in nature and so are unlikely to be reversed without wide-ranging economic reform. Slower growth in the BRICs is likely to shave half... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Non-oil sector driving Nigeria's economy The Nigerian economy returned to trend growth in Q4 on account of a strong performance in the non-oil sector. Nevertheless, with the oil sector continuing to drag on headline growth and inflation now... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: fiscal consolidation postponed again The South African Finance Ministry today nudged up its forecasts for the fiscal deficit for the next three years, but we suspect that the budget shortfall may still surprise on the upside. 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation set for a modest rebound Emerging market (EM) inflation looks to have found a floor in late 2012 and is set for a modest rebound over the first half of this year. Food inflation is likely to pick up in the coming months and... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update External fragilities remain high in the non-Gulf economies Political unrest is increasing balance of payments strains across the region’s resource-poor economies. Egypt has grabbed the headlines, but there are also external financing concerns in Jordan and... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack South Africa struggling to match its regional peers South African Q4 GDP surprised on the upside but, 2009 aside, sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA’s) largest economy still grew at its slowest pace for over a decade over the course of last year as a whole... 27th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: pick-up in Q4 GDP masks underlying weakness South African Q4 GDP surprised on the upside but, 2009 aside, the economy still grew at its slowest pace for well over a decade last year. The drag from the mining sector is likely to ease over the... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A different take on "currency wars" The “Swan Diagram” – developed by the Australian academic Trevor Swan in the 1950s – offers a fresh perspective on global “currency wars”. It suggests that macro imbalances in those EMs that have been... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Equity market rally loses steam Following a strong start to the year, the rally in sub-Saharan African equity markets has lost a little steam in the past few weeks. Nevertheless, the MSCI frontier Africa index is still up by around... 22nd February 2013 · 1 min read
