Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia's IMF deal underlines need for political consensus Tunisia’s IMF deal is a crucial step to helping the economy out of its post-revolution slump. But the agreement also underlines the need for political consensus in the Arab Spring countries in order... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update BRICs continue to struggle The recent weakness of the economic data across the emerging world has been exacerbated by calendar effects. Even so, our EM GDP Tracker reveals a broader trend of weakening activity, particularly in... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update How would a slump in gold prices affect South Africa? The sharp drop in gold prices over the past week or so has led to a sell-off in South Africa’s stock market, but the sector’s declining importance to the overall economy means that, so long as further... 19th April 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does the fall in oil prices mean for the MENA region? The recent fall in oil prices is unlikely to unduly trouble the Gulf States. Prices need to drop much further and stay there before they run fiscal deficits, and even then large savings and low debt... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Consumer spending starts to soften EM consumer spending has been one of the bright spots in the global economy in recent years, supported by healthy wage growth, low unemployment and loose monetary policy. But retail sales growth... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: inflation to breach target, but only temporarily South African inflation is likely to rise above the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range in the near term, possibly as early as this month. Nevertheless, any spike should prove temporary, and inflation is... 17th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Introducing the Capital Economics Risk Indicator Although emerging markets (EMs) have experienced rapid growth over the past 30 years, this period has been punctuated by occasional economic and financial crises. These have typically been preceded by... 16th April 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus A closer look at South Africa's current account vulnerabilities The sharp widening of South Africa’s current account deficit in 2012 has grabbed most of the headlines, but the more worrying issue is the deterioration in the quality of capital inflows that are... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Export recovery loses its shine The recovery of Emerging Market exports has continued in recent months, but forward looking indicators suggest that they will soften over the course of Q2. What’s more, a big divergence remains in the... 12th April 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African mining rebounds, but still faces headwinds The strong rebound in South African mining output in the early part of 2013 suggests that the sector made a decent contribution to overall GDP growth in Q1. But nevertheless, the sector still faces a... 11th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Recovery falters The latest data suggest that the EM recovery may already be running into headwinds. With policy set to remain loose in most economies, EM growth is probably not about to slow again and will far... 10th April 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Which countries are set to benefit from increasing FDI? Inflows of foreign direct investment to sub-Saharan Africa have increased markedly over the past decade or so, with growth being strongest in countries that have a) a large endowment of natural... 9th April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China's economic rebound failing to save others Hopes that the rebound in China’s economy will help other EMs look set to be disappointed. Chinese trade data for March will be released later this week (Wednesday). But so far at least, the recovery... 9th April 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Regional growth holding up well despite external headwinds GDP data released over the past week or so show that, while growth in a number of sub-Saharan Africa’s smaller economies slowed in the latter part of 2012, the region was still one of the world’s... 5th April 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan markets rally but post-election challenges remain Kenyan financial markets have rallied in the past few days following the Supreme Court’s ruling that the presidential election held in March was legitimate. Nevertheless, with growth appearing to have... 3rd April 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing losing steam The latest PMIs suggest that manufacturing in the emerging world stuttered last month. Activity slowed further in emerging Europe and Latin America. The only region where activity accelerated was... 3rd April 2013 · 1 min read
