Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: pound's devaluation has further to go In spite of the Central Bank of Egypt’s best efforts, it appears to be only a matter of time before the Egyptian pound breaks through 7/US$. And there is a growing risk that, without an IMF deal, the... 18th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What would the tapering of QE mean for the MENA region? Fears that the US Fed may begin to taper its third round of quantitative easing (QE) have led to a sell-off in emerging market assets over the past few weeks. The MENA region has escaped relatively... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs should be worried about weaker currencies? Most EMs are likely to tolerate the recent sell-off in their currencies. In some places this may even be welcomed. But there are a few exceptions. Inflation concerns mean that currency weakness will... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria may already be the region's largest economy Technical difficulties mean that the proposed rebasing and revision of Nigerian GDP data have now been delayed until 2014. Nevertheless, whenever the revised data are released, they are likely to show... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor No recovery in sight for EM exports The weakness of the global economy continues to keep export growth subdued across Emerging Markets (EMs). Even in Asia, where exports held up relatively well until very recently, growth in trade has... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fears of inflation and unrest to frustrate subsidy reform Subsidies are becoming increasingly unaffordable across the poorer parts of the MENA region. But the threat of higher inflation and social unrest is likely to frustrate efforts at subsidy reform. 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What is driving the weakness of the South African rand? Around half of the fall in the rand over the past month or so appears to have been due to global factors, while the other half has possibly been due to domestic factors such as labour unrest. With... 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: interest rates unlikely to fall much below 10% Today’s decision from the Bank of Uganda to cut interest rates by 100bp to 11% is probably not a one-off. But, with inflation picking up and the shilling likely to come under pressure, we doubt that... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Youth unemployment likely to have risen further Two and a half years on from the Arab Spring uprisings, youth unemployment in the Middle East, which was a key trigger for the unrest, remains high. In fact, we suspect it may have risen over the past... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Construction points to weak EM investment Construction has started the year on a weak note across the emerging world and particularly in those EMs that most need to raise their investment rates, notably Brazil and Russia. This adds weight to... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Will Rwanda continue to outperform? We expect a fall in agricultural commodity prices and a reduction in aid flows to lead to slower growth in Rwanda over the next couple of years. Nevertheless, increasing foreign direct investment into... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt's government finances need to be brought under control Ongoing political uncertainty has led to a sharp deterioration in the Egyptian government’s finances. The measures required to put them on a more sustainable footing are politically sensitive. But... 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing downturn deepens The 25% year-on-year rise in equity prices in advanced economies, combined with rising property prices in some countries, should provide a boost to household consumption. However, we suspect the... 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Assessing EM government debt dynamics High public debt and large budget deficits mean that the governments of Egypt, Jordan and Hungary need to tighten fiscal policy. Moreover, despite appearing healthy, the public finances of some... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African manufacturers continue to struggle South Africa’s manufacturing PMI remained at a weak level in May, and a combination of sluggish external demand and domestic structural constraints means the sector is likely to continue struggling in... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Too early to say Egypt’s economy has turned the corner Although Egypt’s headline PMI rose sharply in May to reach its highest level in six months, we would caution against reading this as a sign that the economy has turned the corner. Meanwhile, PMIs for... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
