Africa Economics Weekly Debt talks in Zambia and Ghana, SA’s energy crisis Delays to Zambia’s debt restructuring threaten to hold up the country’s IMF deal and add to the signs that the Common Framework isn’t fit for purpose. Elsewhere, Ghana’s government appears to be open... 27th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Loadshedding tilts SARB’s focus towards growth The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) smaller-than-expected 25bp interest rate hike today and large cuts to its growth forecast make clear that its focus is pivoting to concerns about activity... 26th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update CBN back in hawkish mode… for now The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) raised the benchmark rate by 100bp, to 17.50%, today in a surprisingly aggressive decision. But with incoming data likely to add to evidence of easing price pressures... 24th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s loan-to-bond swap, SA power cuts permeating Plans by the government of Nigeria to swap central bank loans to bonds have hit a sticky patch, making it unclear whether the country can reap the associated economic gains. Elsewhere, the fallout... 20th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Nov.) November’s hard activity figures out of South Africa were a mixed bag, but we think that weakness in industrial sectors will increasingly dwarf any strength elsewhere especially as power cuts and... 18th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Disruptions worsening underlying weakness in Nigeria Recent data suggest that Nigeria’s economy was struggling even before demonetisation efforts hit activity late last year. And we don’t expect economic news to take a turn for the better any time soon... 17th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Dec.) December inflation data out of Nigeria, at 21.3% y/y, came in below expectations, and provided a first sign that inflation passed its peak. Policymakers are likely to latch onto the fall in inflation... 16th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s ruling party policies stuck in old ways At a key policy conference, South Africa’s ruling party officials offered little by way of new ideas to address the country’s mounting economic challenges. And some fresh proposals risk making matters... 13th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Runners and riders in Nigeria’s upcoming elections In the first instalment of our Election Watch series ahead of the late-February polls in Nigeria, we assess the economic policies proposed by key candidates. The elections offer a chance to depart... 12th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly What lies in store in 2023, Ghana’s latest debt-move The new year has started with economies in Sub-Saharan Africa bracing for disruptions due to the end of zero-COVID in China and a looming global recession. While these are likely to pass by mid-year... 6th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI picked up for a fourth consecutive month, to 53.1, in December but the backdrop of persistent power cuts, tight policy and a global recession means that we think that... 6th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry: ends 2022 on a weak footing Although the manufacturing PMIs for December picked up in some highly-open EMs in Asia and Central Europe, industry in these countries remains very weak. And the surveys suggest that activity has... 3rd January 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly 2022 ends with a debt bang 2022 will be a year to forget for many African economies – it was marked by growing balance sheet strains and culminated in Ghana's government opting to default on much of its external debt earlier... 23rd December 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Regional slowdown underway The performance of African economies diverged early this year, but the latest data provide clearer signs that growth across the region is now slowing. Economic weakness seems most pronounced in Ghana... 20th December 2022 · 10 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Region’s vulnerabilities crystallising The challenging external backdrop means that growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to slow in 2023, and by much more than most expect. Currencies are likely to weaken and public debt fears will... 19th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Leadership changes in South Africa? Ghana’s IMF boost South Africa’s president dodged impeachment earlier this week and is likely to be re-elected as leader of the ruling ANC party over the weekend, but the country’s economic challenges have only grown... 16th December 2022 · 5 mins read
