Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian economy suffers in aftermath of “second revolution” August’s PMI data provide evidence that the Egyptian economy is still suffering following the country’s “second revolution”. Meanwhile, the Saudi non-oil economy has picked-up. 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update BRIC GDP growth propped up by Brazil rebound in Q2 At an aggregate level, the second quarter GDP data suggest that the BRIC economies held up relatively well in Q2. However, this was largely due to a surprisingly strong rebound in Brazil. In the other... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African manufacturing recovery gathers steam The South African manufacturing PMI rose to a six-year high in August, indicating a further uptick in overall GDP growth in Q3. But relatively high wage increases agreed in the past month or so are... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Currencies still under pressure African currencies have come under renewed pressure in August, with the South African rand and the Ghanaian cedi suffering more than most. But while currencies have weakened, local equity markets have... 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s stimulus plan comes with risks attached Egypt’s newly-announced stimulus package stands a chance of boosting the beleaguered economy in the near-term. But with the package being funded by Gulf aid, over the longer-term, it could actually... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Nigeria on course to become region’s largest economy Economic growth in both South Africa and Nigeria accelerated a little in Q2, but there are important differences in the performance of the region’s two largest economies. In South Africa, GDP growth... 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Latest unrest has muted impact on Egyptian markets Egypt’s financial markets appear to have taken the latest outbreaks of violence in their stride. The equity market is actually up since the start of the month, while bond yields remain below the level... 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: pick-up in Q2 GDP masks underlying weakness After growing at its slowest quarterly pace in almost four years in Q1, it was always likely that South African GDP would accelerate in Q2. Nevertheless, the pick-up in growth shouldn’t detract from... 27th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Should we still worry about EM currency crises? Improved fundamentals mean that currency crises pose a much smaller risk to Emerging Markets now than in the past. But it would be unwise to assume that the coast is therefore clear for the emerging... 26th August 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How badly will political unrest hit Egyptian tourism? The outbreak of violence in Egypt has made the economic outlook highly uncertain. But it’s pretty clear that the tourism sector will be hard hit, as it has been during previous bouts of unrest. We... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency weakness unlikely to cause EM inflation to rise The sell-off in emerging market (EM) currencies this month is unlikely to have much of an impact on EM-wide inflation. Indeed, looking ahead, we think the outlook for EM inflation is fairly benign. 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: currency slump is a double-edged sword The renewed slump in the rand has once again cast a spotlight on some of South Africa’s economic vulnerabilities. But while it is likely to put the balance of payments position under pressure and keep... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Weak rand to push South African inflation higher South African inflation breached the upper bound of the SARB’s target range in July, and the effects of a weak rand means it is likely to accelerate a little further in the coming months. This will... 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three questions (and answers) about the EM currency sell-off The renewed sell-off in EM currencies has cast a fresh spotlight on vulnerabilities in the emerging world. In this Update we answer three key questions that have been raised by recent market moves. 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt sinks further into crisis, Gulf’s prospects brightening The outbreak of violence between security forces and protestors this month has sent Egypt spiralling deeper into crisis. It’s extremely tricky to predict how eventswill unfold from here on. In the... 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: how is the wage negotiation season progressing? Agreements have now been reached in more than half of the sectors holding talks during South Africa’s current wage negotiation season. However, a lack of agreement in the mining sector means the risk... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
