Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf economies gathering pace Growth in the Gulf States appears to have accelerated in recent months. Oil production has surged in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, at least in part as a response to supply disruptions in Libya. And in the... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: twin deficits to keep monetary policy tight A failure to sufficiently rein in large budget and current account deficits means that further monetary tightening is still likely in Ghana, despite the Central Bank’s decision to keep interest rates... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The economic impact of Fed tapering revisited We expect the Fed to announce a small reduction in its asset purchases at the conclusion of today’s FOMC meeting. In this Update we revisit the implications for EMs and explain why, despite the market... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Signs of improvement in EM trade data The most recent Emerging Market (EM) trade data show that export growth accelerated in July. What’s more, on the basis of the latest leading indicators, a further improvement in EM exports looks... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Rise in capital spending takes edge off deficit concerns An increase in capital expenditure across the region over the past few years means that the general widening in budget deficits may not be as worrying as the headline figures suggest. But there are... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM policymakers step back from foreign exchange intervention One of the more surprising features of August’s EM currency sell-off is how little policymakers in the worst-affected countries intervened in foreign exchange markets to try to stop it. In the case of... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Fed tapering unlikely to put region’s external positions at risk The turbulence in financial markets over the past few months has raised concerns about how emerging markets will perform as global monetary conditions tighten. In the case of Africa, current account... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Five years on – what next for the emerging world? In the five years since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, emerging economies have accounted for three-quarters of global growth. This has fed expectations that the emerging world can continue to... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Little threat of a systemic EM crisis We do not expect the tapering and eventual ending of QE by the US Fed to be the trigger for a systemic Emerging Market (EM) crisis. Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that financial... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Will Egypt monetise its budget deficit? There are mounting concerns about the prospect of deficit monetisation in Egypt. Indeed, thereappears to be some evidence that the central bank is already financing the budget shortfall, albeiton a... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What next for the Egyptian pound? Following the recent strengthening of the Egyptian pound, we have revised our year-end forecast for the currency. But in this Watch, we explain why we still think that, over a longer horizon, the... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update External financing risks persist in South Africa South Africa’s current account deficit widened in Q2, and the shortfall continues to be funded in largepart by short-term capital inflows. As a result, the economy remains among the most vulnerable to... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Subsidy reform key to sustaining fiscal discipline The widening of fiscal deficits in several economies in sub-Saharan Africa over the past few years has increased the importance of subsidy reform. The good news is that policymakers are starting to... 9th September 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Growth in Morocco and Tunisia to remain sluggish Signs of recovery in the euro-zone are encouraging for Morocco and Tunisia. But political problems and large twin fiscal and current account deficits will continue to cloud the economic outlook. 5th September 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Next move in Kenyan interest rates likely to be up African currencies have come under renewed pressure in August, with the South African rand and the Ghanaian cedi suffering more than most. But while currencies have weakened, local equity markets have... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMI signals modest improvement in manufacturing Our EM-wide PMI suggests that emerging market manufacturing improved a little last month. The recovery in the euro-zone in recent months appears to have boosted external demand, particularly in... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
